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Mark Seleznov
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Mark Seleznov is the Chief Investment Officer of Seleznov Capital Advisors (SCA). SCA is a SEC registered investment advisory firm that performs advisory services for Mutual Funds, Trusts, 401K plans and Individuals. Mark supervises the asset allocation programs of SCA in a variety of strategic... More
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  • System Trading Plan: Current 50 Day Moving Average Signals for April 13, 2010 0 comments
    Apr 12, 2010 6:29 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
    The U.S. Dollar has been in a uptrend since December of 2009 if you use the 50 day moving average as your determination of trend. Today, April 12, 2010, the UUP, Dollar Index ETF closed below its 50 day moving average for the first time since December.
    System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 50 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 50 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
    Other widely followed moving averages are the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays the 65 day moving average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
     Why should you care about the signals produced with the 50 day moving average? There are so many people using the 50 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 50 day moving average.
    The below chart shows the current 50 day simple moving average condition on the 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
    Security Name Trend2 Ticker
    Barclays High Yield Bond Stay Long JNK
    BRIC IShares Stay Long BKF
    Coal Power Shares Stay Long PKOL
    DB Commodity Index Stay Long DBC
    Diamond Trust DOW Stay Long DIA
    Energy Select SPDR Stay Long XLE
    Internet Holders Stay Long HHH
    IPath India Index Stay Long INP
    IShare Russell 2000 Stay Long IWM
    IShares 25 Index Stay Long FXI
    IShares Australia Stay Long EWA
    IShares Basic Materials Stay Long IYM
    IShares DJ Real Estate Stay Long IYR
    Ishares DJ Transportation Stay Long IYT
    Ishares Emerging Markets Stay Long EEM
    IShares Financial Sector Stay Long IYF
    IShares Germany Stay Long EWG
    IShares Hong Kong Stay Long EWH
    IShares Latin America Stay Long ILF
    IShares Mexico Stay Long EWW
    IShares Mid Cap 400 Stay Long IJH
    IShares MSCI EAFE Stay Long EFA
    IShares MSCI Japan Stay Long EWJ
    IShares Pacific ex Japan Stay Long EPP
    IShares S&P 500 Growth Stay Long IVW
    Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 Stay Long IJR
    IShares Silver Stay Long SLV
    IShares South Africa Stay Long EZA
    IShares South Korea Stay Long EWY
    IShares Taiwan Stay Long EWT
    IShares United Kingdom Stay Long EWU
    NDX 100 Stay Long QQQQ
    Oil Service Holders Stay Long OIH
    Pharmaceutical Holders Stay Long PPH
    PowerShares US Dollar Index New Short UUP
    Russia Stay Long RSX
    RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight Stay Long RSP
    S&P 500 Stay Long SPY
    Semiconductor Holders Stay Long SMH
    SPDR Consumer Descretionary Stay Long XLY
    SPDR Consumer Staples Stay Long XLP
    SPDR Gold Shares Stay Long GLD
    SPDR Healthcare Stay Long XLV
    SPDR Industrial Sector Stay Long XLI
    SPDR International Real Estate Stay Long RWX
    SPDR Materials Stay Long XLB
    SPDR Metal & Mining Stay Long XME
    SPDR Mid Cap Stay Long MDY
    SPDR S&P Homebuilders Stay Long XHB
    SPDR Technology Stay Long XLK
    Steel Market Vector Stay Long SLX
    US Oil Stay Long USO
    Wisdom Tree Total Dividend Stay Long DTD
    You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
    These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
    Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
    We monitor the 50 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
    There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 50 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
    For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
    mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
     
    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
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