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Mark Seleznov
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Mark Seleznov is the Chief Investment Officer of Seleznov Capital Advisors (SCA). SCA is a SEC registered investment advisory firm that performs advisory services for Mutual Funds, Trusts, 401K plans and Individuals. Mark supervises the asset allocation programs of SCA in a variety of strategic... More
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Seleznov Capital Advisors
  • Systematic Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for July 23, 2010 0 comments
    Jul 22, 2010 6:16 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EEP, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
    As often is the case, the 200 day moving average can act as resistance or support. When an Index rises above the 200 day moving average only to fall back below, indicates resistance. We are now seeing several Indexes move back above their 200 day moving average.
    For a true Trend change, these should stay above and others should shortly join these above their 200 day moving average.
    At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service. 
    System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
    Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
     Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.
    The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
    Security NameTrend3Ticker
    Wisdom Tree Total DividendStay ShortDTD
    US OilStay ShortUSO
    Steel Market VectorStay ShortSLX
    SPDR TechnologyStay ShortXLK
    SPDR S&P HomebuildersStay ShortXHB
    SPDR Mid CapNew LongMDY
    SPDR Metal & MiningStay ShortXME
    SPDR MaterialsStay ShortXLB
    SPDR International Real EstateNew LongRWX
    SPDR Industrial SectorNew LongXLI
    SPDR HealthcareStay ShortXLV
    SPDR Gold SharesStay LongGLD
    SPDR Consumer StaplesNew LongXLP
    SPDR Consumer DescretionaryNew LongXLY
    Semiconductor HoldersStay LongSMH
    S&P 500Stay ShortSPY
    RYDEX S&P 500 Equal WeightNew LongRSP
    RussiaStay ShortRSX
    PowerShares US Dollar IndexStay LongUUP
    Pharmaceutical HoldersStay ShortPPH
    Oil Service HoldersStay ShortOIH
    NDX 100New LongQQQQ
    IShares United KingdomStay ShortEWU
    IShares TaiwanStay ShortEWT
    IShares South KoreaStay LongEWY
    IShares South AfricaStay LongEZA
    IShares SilverNew LongSLV
    Ishares S&P Small Cap 600New LongIJR
    IShares S&P 500 GrowthStay ShortIVW
    IShares Pacific ex JapanStay ShortEPP
    IShares MSCI JapanStay ShortEWJ
    IShares MSCI EAFEStay ShortEFA
    IShares Mid Cap 400New LongIJH
    IShares MexicoStay LongEWW
    IShares Latin AmericaNew LongILF
    IShares Hong KongStay ShortEWH
    IShares GermanyStay ShortEWG
    IShares Financial SectorStay ShortIYF
    Ishares Emerging MarketsNew LongEEM
    Ishares DJ TransportationNew LongIYT
    IShares DJ Real EstateStay LongIYR
    IShares Basic MaterialsStay ShortIYM
    IShares AustraliaStay ShortEWA
    IShares 25 IndexStay ShortFXI
    IShare Russell 2000Stay ShortIWM
    IPath India IndexStay LongINP
    Internet HoldersStay ShortHHH
    Energy Select SPDRStay ShortXLE
    Diamond Trust DOWStay ShortDIA
    DB Commodity IndexStay ShortDBC
    Coal Power SharesStay ShortPKOL
    BRIC ISharesStay ShortBKF
    Barclays High Yield BondStay LongJNK
    You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
    These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
    Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
    We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
    There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
    For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
    mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
     
    Themes: market timing, trading plan, etf, system trading, active trading, technical analysis, trend following, 50 day moving average, stock index, moving averages, 100 day moving average, 200 day moving average, cross of the shorter moving average, 3 moving averages, 50 most a Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EEP, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
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