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Mark Seleznov
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Mark Seleznov is the Chief Investment Officer of Seleznov Capital Advisors (SCA). SCA is a SEC registered investment advisory firm that performs advisory services for Mutual Funds, Trusts, 401K plans and Individuals. Mark supervises the asset allocation programs of SCA in a variety of strategic... More
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Seleznov Capital Advisors
  • Systematic Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for July 27, 2010 0 comments
    Jul 26, 2010 6:05 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EEP, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
    Today, July 26, 2010 the S&P 500 Index closed above its 200 day moving average again. By itself, the close of the S&P 500 Index above the 200 is not a great signal. When combined with all the other Indexes that are now above the 200 day moving average, we may be seeing a true Trend change. Please note that the SPY, ETF closed just below its 200 day moving average.
    At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service. 
    System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
    Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
     Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.
    The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
    Security NameTrend3Ticker
    Barclays High Yield BondStay LongJNK
    BRIC ISharesStay LongBKF
    Coal Power SharesStay ShortPKOL
    DB Commodity IndexStay ShortDBC
    Diamond Trust DOWStay LongDIA
    Energy Select SPDRStay ShortXLE
    Internet HoldersStay ShortHHH
    IPath India IndexStay LongINP
    IShare Russell 2000Stay LongIWM
    IShares 25 IndexStay ShortFXI
    IShares AustraliaStay ShortEWA
    IShares Basic MaterialsStay LongIYM
    IShares DJ Real EstateStay LongIYR
    Ishares DJ TransportationStay LongIYT
    Ishares Emerging MarketsStay LongEEM
    IShares Financial SectorStay ShortIYF
    IShares GermanyStay ShortEWG
    IShares Hong KongStay LongEWH
    IShares Latin AmericaStay LongILF
    IShares MexicoStay LongEWW
    IShares Mid Cap 400Stay LongIJH
    IShares MSCI EAFEStay ShortEFA
    IShares MSCI JapanStay ShortEWJ
    IShares Pacific ex JapanStay ShortEPP
    IShares S&P 500 GrowthNew LongIVW
    Ishares S&P Small Cap 600Stay LongIJR
    IShares SilverStay LongSLV
    IShares South AfricaStay LongEZA
    IShares South KoreaStay LongEWY
    IShares TaiwanStay LongEWT
    IShares United KingdomStay ShortEWU
    NDX 100Stay LongQQQQ
    Oil Service HoldersStay ShortOIH
    Pharmaceutical HoldersStay ShortPPH
    PowerShares US Dollar IndexStay LongUUP
    RussiaStay LongRSX
    RYDEX S&P 500 Equal WeightStay LongRSP
    S&P 500Stay ShortSPY
    Semiconductor HoldersStay LongSMH
    SPDR Consumer DescretionaryStay LongXLY
    SPDR Consumer StaplesStay LongXLP
    SPDR Gold SharesStay LongGLD
    SPDR HealthcareStay ShortXLV
    SPDR Industrial SectorStay LongXLI
    SPDR International Real EstateStay LongRWX
    SPDR MaterialsNew LongXLB
    SPDR Metal & MiningNew LongXME
    SPDR Mid CapStay LongMDY
    SPDR S&P HomebuildersStay ShortXHB
    SPDR TechnologyStay LongXLK
    Steel Market VectorStay LongSLX
    US OilStay ShortUSO
    Wisdom Tree Total DividendNew LongDTD
    You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
    These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
    Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
    We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
    There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
    For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
    mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
     
    Themes: market timing, trading plan, etf, system trading, active trading, technical analysis, trend following, 50 day moving average, stock index, moving averages, 100 day moving average, 200 day moving average, cross of the shorter moving average, 3 moving averages, 50 most a Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EEP, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
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