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Mark Seleznov
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Mark Seleznov is the Chief Investment Officer of Seleznov Capital Advisors (SCA). SCA is a SEC registered investment advisory firm that performs advisory services for Mutual Funds, Trusts, 401K plans and Individuals. Mark supervises the asset allocation programs of SCA in a variety of strategic... More
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Seleznov Capital Advisors
  • Systematic Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for August 12, 2010 0 comments
    Aug 11, 2010 5:52 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EEP, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
    Today’s large losses in the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq brought those indexes and many others below their 200 day moving averages. Most Indexes closed at or near their lows of the day. The 3 major Indexes are negative for the year. Many other Indexes we track also fell below or are close to failing below the 200 day moving average. Traders using this as their only indicator are being whipsawed.
     At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service. 
    System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
    Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
     Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.
    The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
    Security NameTrend3Ticker
    Barclays High Yield BondStay LongJNK
    BRIC ISharesNew ShortBKF
    Coal Power SharesStay ShortPKOL
    DB Commodity IndexStay ShortDBC
    Diamond Trust DOWNew ShortDIA
    Energy Select SPDRStay ShortXLE
    Internet HoldersStay ShortHHH
    IPath India IndexStay LongINP
    IShare Russell 2000New ShortIWM
    IShares 25 IndexStay ShortFXI
    IShares AustraliaStay ShortEWA
    IShares Basic MaterialsNew ShortIYM
    IShares DJ Real EstateStay LongIYR
    Ishares DJ TransportationStay LongIYT
    Ishares Emerging MarketsNew ShortEEM
    IShares Financial SectorStay ShortIYF
    IShares GermanyNew ShortEWG
    IShares Hong KongStay LongEWH
    IShares Latin AmericaNew ShortILF
    IShares MexicoStay LongEWW
    IShares Mid Cap 400New ShortIJH
    IShares MSCI EAFEStay ShortEFA
    IShares MSCI JapanStay ShortEWJ
    IShares Pacific ex JapanNew ShortEPP
    IShares S&P 500 GrowthNew ShortIVW
    Ishares S&P Small Cap 600New ShortIJR
    IShares SilverStay LongSLV
    IShares South AfricaStay LongEZA
    IShares South KoreaStay LongEWY
    IShares TaiwanStay LongEWT
    IShares United KingdomNew ShortEWU
    NDX 100New ShortQQQQ
    Oil Service HoldersStay ShortOIH
    Pharmaceutical HoldersStay ShortPPH
    PowerShares US Dollar IndexNew LongUUP
    RussiaNew ShortRSX
    RYDEX S&P 500 Equal WeightNew ShortRSP
    S&P 500New ShortSPY
    Semiconductor HoldersNew ShortSMH
    SPDR Consumer DescretionaryStay LongXLY
    SPDR Consumer StaplesNew ShortXLP
    SPDR Gold SharesStay LongGLD
    SPDR HealthcareStay ShortXLV
    SPDR Industrial SectorStay LongXLI
    SPDR International Real EstateStay LongRWX
    SPDR MaterialsNew ShortXLB
    SPDR Metal & MiningStay ShortXME
    SPDR Mid CapNew ShortMDY
    SPDR S&P HomebuildersStay ShortXHB
    SPDR TechnologyNew ShortXLK
    Steel Market VectorNew ShortSLX
    US OilStay ShortUSO
    Wisdom Tree Total DividendNew ShortDTD
    You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
    These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
    Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
    We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
    There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
    For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
    mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
     
    Themes: market timing, trading plan, etf, system trading, active trading, technical analysis, trend following, 50 day moving average, stock index, moving averages, 100 day moving average, 200 day moving average, cross of the shorter moving average, 3 moving averages, 50 most a Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EEP, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
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