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ForMyOwnAccount is a seasoned Wall Street veteran and former buy-side investment manager schooled in the Graham & Dodd approach. He now regularly employs the long-term investing principles he practiced for years. He will trade anything and everything for his own account on both the long and... More
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  • Sirius XM Should Be OK On The Long Side 2 comments
    Nov 27, 2009 10:15 AM | about stocks: SIRI

    OK, OK, what the heck!  Maybe there is a bull case to be made here. 

    If listening to Sirius XM Satellite Radio is addictive to one, it is probably addictive to all.  I must admit, things are looking up for the company:  its churn rate is indeed declining; it has a dynamite new advertising campaign going; and once you get it and listen to it, you don't want to go back to free terrestrial or internet radio.

    So I am buying SIRI on these mini-dips like this morning's to sixty cents a share.  I can buy Berkshire A's and never double my money in this lifetime, or I can buy SIRI and have a fighting chance of doubling my money by next year.

    I love the product.  I love the CEO, Mel Karmazin.  I love the content available on the stations.  I like having Malone in the mix, looking for cross-marketing and other opportunities with Liberty/Direct TV. 

    SIRI has vastly more upside potential than downside risk.  Ultimately, hey, who really minds the $12 or so it costs per month to get this beautiful sound piped into the car, the home, or onto the laptop/PC? 

    There are several genuinely informed SIRI commentators in "Seeking Alpha-land."  One is "SatWaves" Brandon Matthews.  He may come off as something of a shill for the company, but he is by and large objective and informed.  He and Janco Research make the bull case convincing.  The Zack's report on this company is an embarassment.
    The verdict:  I am buying SIRI @ $0.59 per share or better.  The holiday season could blow this stock up to a buck.  And if it hits a buck twenty, I will kick out half my position and have none of my own money in the position.  I will, as the saying goes, be playing with the house's money, meaning who cares for a year or two what happens to the remaining position.  On any uptick, the shorts will continue to run for cover.

    They won't be making any SIRI knock-offs anytime soon.  Could be a good long bet.

    Disclosure:  Long SIRI

    If you don't love the product, don't buy the stock.  I love the product.  I am buying the stock.  Go Mel Go!

    Stocks: SIRI
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  • Spademan
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
    The shorts are shorting SIRI but stop stop and think for a minute, every shot sale is being bought long. That tells me that pretty soon that the short will have a very hard time buying them back. Why? Because Mel said that SIRI would soon start buying back yheir shares. I would love to see them run for cover.
    Jim T.
    27 Nov 2009, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • ForMyOwnAccount
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Yes, it will be quite a sight to see the shorts in SIRI run for cover. That would definitely create a demand/supply imbalance now, wouldn't it?


    By the way, aA tip of the hat to Satwaves Brandon Mathews for being probably the most informed person out here who is commenting on SIRI. I may be able to read balance sheets, but his knowledge of the sat biz humbles me and unmasks me for how little I really know about the Sat Radio biz. We are all, shorts and longs alike, wiser for his insights and comments, so keep 'em coming bud!
    8 Dec 2009, 10:18 PM Reply Like
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