Seeking Alpha

TimerFrank's  Instablog

TimerFrank
Send Message
Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
My blog:
Market Timing Pro
  • Discretionary Vs. Mechanical Market Timing Strategies  0 comments
    Jun 22, 2013 10:19 AM

    Investors Or Traders?

    Those who use the stock market to grow their assets have two choices. They can either be investors, which means they are "buy-and-hold" for the long term. Or, they are traders who try to use the ups and downs inherent in free markets to profit.

    Buy-and-hold investors have much to worry about. Are they buying in at high prices? When they are ready to retire, will the markets be in a bear market? Obviously those who planned to retire in the years 2000 through 2009 faced a great dilemma.

    Aggressive buy-and-holders who were invested in Nasdaq stocks, had lost 70-80% of their capital in 2000-2002 and then 50% in the 2008-2009 bear market. Even cautious S&P investors lost 50% in 2000-2002 and then another 50% in the 2008-2009 bear market.

    Market timers, who are actually traders usually using mutual funds as their investment vehicle of choice, recognize these pitfalls. Their goal is never to give back much capital.

    If you are trading trends (and historically the markets are in trends more than they are not) you will never take large losses to capital as you will exit immediately if the trend changes.

    And... you will make big profits from the inevitable long term trends when they occur.

    Two Kinds Of Market Timers

    Market timers, trading all trends, are the most successful over time. But even in market timing, there are two ways to determine your trades.

    Discretionary timers depend on the sum total of their market knowledge to make decisions. Whether it be market analysis, a multitude of indicators, gut feeling, current or even potential future news events, hot tips, etc.

    Discretionary trades are subjective. They can be changed and second guessed. There are no absolute guarantees that each individual trade is based reality and is not colored by any personal bias.

    Mechanical timers, which use timing strategies based on an objective and automated set of rules, avoid the emotional biases inherent in discretionary trading.

    They follow a set of rules to get them into, and out of, the markets. They know that some trades will not be successful, but they also know that they will always be in for the big trades. The ones that make the money and over time make them successful timers.

    Mechanical systems make life much easier by "removing" the emotional aspect.

    Mechanical Strategies Are Based On Price

    Mechanical timing strategies are based on "price." There is no other information in the stock market that is absolutely correct at all times.

    Price tells all. Price is always correct. Price has all the news, all the fundamental analysis, everything affecting stocks, already factored in.

    It may seem a bit boring using a mechanical timing strategy. After all, where is the fun, the emotional highs, that many traders thrive on.

    But let's get one thing straight. Mechanical timing strategies, which use price to determine trends, are not about fun. They are not about emotion and in fact they are designed to eliminate emotion.

    Mechanical trading strategies are about "making money." Pure and simple.

    They are about winning.

    Following The Emotional Crowd

    In fact, the entire stock market moves up and down because of millions of investors depending, for the most part, on emotional decisions. Fear and greed. That is why volume spikes near the tops of rallies, and again near to bottoms of corrections. Everyone is jumping on board.

    There may be comfort in following the emotional crowd, but there is seldom profit.

    Mechanical timing strategies, using "price" to determine buy and sell signals, actually "use" the emotional ups and downs of the market to make money.

    The rallies and corrections are going to happen, so when we use price to tell us when they are happening, as trend traders we just jump on board and let the market take us along for our profits.

    Conclusion

    Discretionary traders sometimes have big winners. Toss a coin enough times and it always comes up heads eventually. But the only certain way to be successful for the long haul in the markets is to follow a "non-emotional" trading strategy and to always "stick-to-the-plan."

    There is no second guessing. There are no worries. We know the strategies work over any two or three year period and that can be proved with historical data going back a hundred years or more. In Fibtimer's case real-time trading statistics going back into the 1990s'

    Trend followers know that the markets are "in" trends most of the time. No one knows what will happen tomorrow, but trend traders "know" they will beat the markets and make great profits over time.

Back To TimerFrank's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.