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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Market Timer, Know Yourself  0 comments
    Oct 12, 2013 11:21 AM

    FibTimer's success depends on "your" success. We want you to be successful. To achieve this requires not only successful market timing strategies, which we provide, but subscribers must also follow those strategies correctly.

    One of the most difficult tasks for us at FibTimer, is trying to help subscribers understand what is required to achieve success in market timing. We can publish the reports, but if the strategies are not followed correctly, the odds of being profitable diminish.

    This commentary covers some of the questions we would ask every subscriber if we could talk to them personally.

    Know Your Limits

    Subscribers should use the strategies that suit them best. We have aggressive, active, and conservative timing strategies. Make sure you know what sort of timing strategy you are emotionally able to handle.

    A novice market timer, who jumps right into an aggressive timing strategy, might have a difficult time when facing several trades in a fast market. It does not happen often, but it can happen.

    If you are conservative, use a conservative strategy. If you are a bit more aggressive, use the active strategies. Remember that you do not have to make lots of trades to be profitable. During volatile markets our more conservative strategies are often the best performers.

    Jumping The Gun

    Another concern is new subscribers who trade immediately. Entering a new position "before" a new bullish or bearish signal has been issued. We understand the urge to jump in and get started, but in reality, "mid-signal" entries are usually more risky than waiting for a new buy or sell signal. When a subscriber enters on his or her own, mid-trade, the result may be losses that should never have happened.

    Patience is a key element to successful market timing. You cannot rush profits. You "can" rush losses though. So take your time and enter properly. You have years of timing ahead. The markets have been around for hundreds of years. They are not going anywhere. Wait and do it right.

    The Strategies

    Our conservative and active strategies are designed to manage risk in volatile, or sideways markets, and to correctly place us in bullish or bearish trends when they occur.

    Aggressive strategies often make their biggest gains during bear markets. When everyone else is losing, the bearish positions are making profits. A 20% market loss equals a 20% gain for the timer, which is 40% better than the market.

    The aggressive strategies are often, though not always, the most profitable over time. But if you exit the strategy after a small loss, you will not be profitable when the strategies catch a strong bearish (or bullish) trend.

    There is an old saying, "If you cannot accept a loss, than you will never succeed in the markets." If you feel you will worry over multiple trades, or may not have the discipline to stay with trades that at times go against the market, use the conservative or active strategies.


    This all brings to mind the next important subject. Market timers should diversify. Putting all your eggs in one basket just does not make sense. No strategy is perfect. Every strategy will have periods of non-performance. This is a fact of trading the markets.

    If you have all your timing funds allocated to a single strategy, you are just hurting your chances of success. If you have the funds available, use several strategies.

    If you do not have the funds available to diversify properly, stay with the Conservative S&P Timer. It just makes sense. if you do, consider the Diversified Timing Strategy which has diversification built in.


    Finally, there are those subscribers who wait to see if a signal is correct before following it. This again diminishes the ability of our risk management, built into the strategies, to work correctly.

    In the aggressive and active strategies, the price we enter at, can be quite different than an entry made two or three days later. This potential is somewhat lessened in the conservative strategies which typically hold positions for considerably longer periods of time, but still should considered.

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