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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Being Right? Or Making Money!  0 comments
    Mar 15, 2014 1:08 PM

    When a market timer (or any trader or investor) makes a trading decision based on a news event, fear of losing out on a rally or of losing money in a sell off, or even the stock broker neighbor's trading tip, he or she is trading on emotions.

    Wishing Your Were Right

    Trading on emotions, news events, market rallies, etc. is basically trading on a WISH.

    There is no basis for the trade, at least none that can be counted on to last. There is nothing but "the moment." The trader wishes he or she will be right.

    Odds of winning? Slim.

    Trades made on wishes have no plan behind them. There is no exit strategy. Invariably, the trade is held until losses become painful enough to force the trader to emotionally sell at a loss.

    In fact, probably the worst thing that can happen is for a market timer to make a trading decision based on such an emotional event, and then be profitable the very first time!

    Not that there is anything wrong with being profitable. But very soon that same trader will be looking at a losing trade, and the confidence of that first win is likely to cost him or her dearly.

    Making Money

    No one makes money on Wall Street without a trading plan. No One!

    Sure, the person with an initial profit can feel great for awhile. And really, really long term investors, those who can afford to watch several bear markets whack 50% to 80% off their savings every 10 years or so, will eventually make money.

    When we say long term, we mean 20 to 30 years! If you sit tight, you will likely make a profit. That is, as long as you do not panic and sell at a bottom. or become greedy and "double up" with margin (almost always at market tops). And, as long as you do not reach retirement age at the same time a multi-year bear market starts.

    There is only "one way" to be certain of being profitable.

    By having, and following absolutely, a finely tuned trading plan that capitalizes on "trends" in the stock market.

    Market timers who have a strategy for entering and exiting positions, and who follow their rules, on a timely basis without hesitation, make money.

    Those who trade by daily news events, daily or weekly rallies & declines, and TV hype, will "always" end up losing money. Remember, for every winning trade in the stock market, there is a losing trade on the other side. Only those who follow a plan consistently make the winning trades.

    One of the most important questions you must ask yourself is:

    Do you want to BE RIGHT for a short time. Or do you want to MAKE MONEY for a long time.

    Winning Market Timers Know the Secret

    Ignore the news. Ignore the daily ups and downs. You have no control over them anyway. No one knows what the next day will bring. No one!

    Wishing will not help. Watching the financial news religiously will not help. There is just no way to know what will happen tomorrow, or even what will happen next week.

    But a successful trading plan that creates unemotional buy and sell decisions will, over time, make even the most emotional person, a successful (profitable) market timer.

    At FibTimer, we provide the plans. All you need do is follow the signals.

    But a few simple rules do apply.

    1. Subscribers should make sure they know how each of our timing strategies works. Read the details and trading rules at the bottom of each report. They will help you build confidence in the trading strategy.

    2. Be sure you know your own emotional ability to handle trading. Aggressive strategies require more trading. If this keeps you up at night worrying, consider one of the active or conservative strategies. Remember, you do not need to trade aggressively to do well, you just need to follow the buy and sell signals diligently.

    3. Subscribers who are new to market timing should not jump right into an aggressive timing strategy. No matter how positive you are that aggressive timing is for you, it is better to start with something a bit tamer in the beginning.

    4. Diversify. It is not a good idea to place all your timing funds in one strategy. Consider three or even more. Or follow our Diversified Portfolio strategy that breaks up your timing into five different positions.

    Build confidence by starting slowly. When you are confident, you will follow the signals. And following the signals is the key to being profitable.

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