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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Correction Ahead For ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT)  0 comments
    May 22, 2012 3:04 PM | about stocks: TLT

    May 23, 2012 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar)

    Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT) have reached historical highs and are due for a reversal.

    In fact, that reversal may have already started.

    TLT reached an historical high of $125.03 back on October 4, 2011. It was an intra-day high not a closing high. The ETF went into a tailspin after, dropping 12% to the $110.00 level in a few weeks.


    Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

    We are looking at the same situation now, with TLT running up to $124.44 intra-day last week and after three days at this level; TLT gapped down at the open on Tuesday, May 22 and will close lower, near $122.00.

    The odds of a decline back to $110.00 are not likely, but a drop to the $116.00 to $117.00 level appears to be probable and an emotional trade lower possible.

    A short trade at current levels with a buy stop at just above $125.00 would make a low risk trade.

    The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not currently hold a position in TLT.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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