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EPS100Momentum
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Author has a degree in Engineering and is an avid investor in the market. Experience in industrial materials and structures. In college studied atomic & nuclear physics as well as material engineering. Eastern European
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  • Oil Shorts Head for Cover, can't short fundamentals anymore "Its GeoPolitical Risk that only Matters" 0 comments
    Feb 24, 2011 8:34 AM | about stocks: XEC, EOG, DVN, CLR, WLL, STO, NOG, GEOI, OIL, USO, DTO, DBO, ERY, DIG, SLV, GLD, KOL, FAN, PALL, LIT, REMX, XOM, BP, COP, CVX, PTR, CEO, TOT, PBR, LINE, PDO, BDCO, GBR, GMXRQ, KOG, CME, ICE, MUR, OIH, OILC, ODC, RIG, NOV, SLB, BHI, CAM, DIA, SPY, TNA, SPXL, MIDU
    There are thousands of traders that are now caught on the wrong side of the trade in oil. Many have short positions built based on fundamentals of certain stocks that let many of them to believe they were good shorts. But the tables have turned on all shorts regardless of fundamentals because of the GeoPolitical Risk in the Oil transport which is the only thing that matters now as OIL surges over $101 per Barrel.

    So lets use (NYSE:CHK) for an example yesterday, after reporting earnings, the company opened down but soon short covering caused it to go deep in the green for the day.

    I will look for the same type of action in (NYSE:WLL) which met analyst estimates yesterday and is down in the pre-market by -1.05/shr to $62.46, The company already is trading at a 50% forward PE discount vs. some Bakken Oil companies like (BEXP), (NYSEMKT:NOG) so the upside far outweighs the downside especially with the GeoPolitical situation in the hub of the oil industry in the Middle East.

    (WLL) expects higher 2011 production of 25.80-26.20 mmboe, from 23.60 mmboe in 2010 even though it expects lower Q1 production due to the extreme cold in N. Dakota during Jan-Feb 2011. 

    Revenue rose 31 percent to $ 413.5 million. The Company earned .84 vs. .85 estimate.

    Here is what I picked yesterday :

    The True winners will be  :

    COG : $44.55

    CLR : $65.99 forward pe 28.06

    WLL : $63.18 forward pe 15.13

    NOG : $28.40 forward pe 26.63

    BEXP : $33.54 forward pe 31.17

    IMO : $50.68 forward pe 17.77

    GEOI : $30.19 forward pe 18.95 


    Stocks: XEC, EOG, DVN, CLR, WLL, STO, NOG, GEOI, OIL, USO, DTO, DBO, ERY, DIG, SLV, GLD, KOL, FAN, PALL, LIT, REMX, XOM, BP, COP, CVX, PTR, CEO, TOT, PBR, LINE, PDO, BDCO, GBR, GMXRQ, KOG, CME, ICE, MUR, OIH, OILC, ODC, RIG, NOV, SLB, BHI, CAM, DIA, SPY, TNA, SPXL, MIDU
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