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Alan Posner
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Sea Lion Capital Management LLC provides Investment Advisory Services. Founder and Chief Market Strategist Alan Posner presents his analysis of markets here throughout the week. Sea Lion Capital Management specializes in stock market technical analysis, commodities technical analysis, and forex... More
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  • SCO had a nice run in my portfolio - cost average of 13.69 sold all positions on Friday for 15.70. Wanted to hang for a bit longer because I believe there is a little more room to run down but wanted to take my profit. What an intense 4-week run - first fling with SCO. Best bet to swing up using UCO or another vehicle? Just learning this volatile game and don't know if I got the guts to do so. We'll see.
    24 Jan 2010, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » First I want to thank you for the comment and I am always happy to hear someone is making money. I posted an entry to my blog here:

     

    sealionllc.com/ETF-Mar...

     

    regarding where I think Crude Oil is going. Curious what the rational was for entry and exit. Since you believe there may be more downside did you consider taking half the position off rather that all of it? With the momentum negative (see blog post on my website) playing UCO or any long position on crude oil I think is riskier than usual. I developed the Sea Lion indicator to keep me on the right side of momentum and identify those instruments with the strongest wind at their back. As the position changes I will post what we do - if you would like an email when a new post is made there is a form on my website. Once again - Thanks.
    24 Jan 2010, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • My rationale was to turn a nice profit getting in and I didn't believe the momentum investors could keep oil at the type of numbers we were seeing at the end of December and week one of January for too long looking at DOE and API numbers. Fundamentally it seemed like a no-brainer that oil couldn't hold numbers in the $84 dollar range, but I am fast finding out these plays are not all based on fundies. Anyway, I sold out of all positions based on a gain I wanted to meet and the feeling that we might have an uptick on Monday to break the losing streak and also I needed to take a step away and evaluate what I just got involved in over the past couple of weeks and its associated emotional toll lol. Anyway, maybe I miss a profit on Monday, maybe I do not - and again, I am learning this game and will hold longer in the future. Or hell, potentially I look to enter late Monday if numbers have remained fairly constant from Friday's close. Excuse the rambling...I am just a novice trying to become more educated in this sector. Thanks for the response...look forward to your future writings.
    25 Jan 2010, 12:13 AM Reply Like
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