Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Will This Be The Drive That Puts EUR/USD Below $1.30?

|Includes:CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE)

Give EUR/USD credit for being stubborn. In spite of all the uncertainty around European debt and a recession the Euro has stayed above $1.30 and although it had a few opportunities to dive lower it hasn't. Since 2/6 the Euro has come close to $1.30 only to find support and rally as high as $1.3485. This fairly narrow range has been making lower highs however as time has gone and the True Strength Index (NYSE:TSI) has been mirroring its behavior. Now the TSI looks prepared to curl back below the "0" line and provide a bearish signal.

While price has been consolidating the ADX has been devoid of momentum and has not demonstrated any interest in moving higher. A break of $1.30 could result in a quick move to $1.2650 and the ADX should react. See the chart.

Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

(click to enlarge)Click to enlarge

Stocks: FXE