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Long a buy and hold investor, I now believe that buy and hold has to be re-evaluated in a world of ever increasing, instant information and huge gyrations in markets all over the world. A value investor at heart, I anchor my portfolio with conservative funds and blue chip dividend stocks, but... More
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  • Are your Canadian Investments in jeopardy this week? 4 comments
    Apr 29, 2011 6:53 PM | about stocks: RY, TD, BMO, USGCF, AGDNF, CVE, SU, ATHOF, BBRY, IQW, TSXPF, POT, MGA, BDRXF-OLD, ABX, GG, KGC, TAC, TRP, UFS, CUD
    Oh Canada! Jack is back but his beanstock of goodies for voters could be devastating for your Retirefund.
    Jack Layton on the 5th anniversary of his lead...Image via Wikipedia
    A storm is brewing north of the 49th parallel.

    Right now it is just a squal, but it could whip itself into a powerful hurricane, strong enough to blow away much of your investments. The name of that storm is Jack Layton.

    Smilin Jack is the leader of Canada's New Ðemocratic Party (NDP). It is far and away, the most leftest political party North America has ever seen.

    Jack has been covering the country with huge spending promises, especially in the Province of Quebec, and it is that province (often the bane of Canadian investors) who may once again, send your retirefund into a tailspin.

    As Jack entices Canadians with over $80 Billion in election promises, (and no hope of paying for them) there is a well spring of support from students, former Bloc Quebecois supporters, and red Liberals who are beginning to fall for a nice guy with a nice smile and pie in the sky promises. This former University professor has never run a business, been responsible for payroll and benefits for employees, invested on behalf of others or even run a Government Dept, but he could actually become the Prime Minister of Canada. That possibility now has about a 50-50 chance of coming true.  Herès why!

    The opposition Liberal Party under Michael Ignatief with the help of leftist Jack and the Bloc Quebecois, were successful in voting down the recent Conservative budget, and forcing this election. The Conservatives, under Prime Minister Steve Harper are looking for the first majority government in years, as they know that, if they only get another minority government, This coalition of opposition parties will vote down the budget again and then present themselves to the Governor General as a (coalition) majority of Parliament, able to govern. If history is any indication, their request will be granted.

    Now when this coalition first hatched this plan, the Liberals had a commanding lead over the other two coalition parties and that would make Michael Ignatief the Prime Minister. The Liberal party is known basically as a party of the centre (most of the time).

    However if the polls are correct, it is possible that the NDP, and smilin Jack, have a good chance of stealing seats from both the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois, thereby giving them more seats than either of their coalition partners, and subequently making Left Wing Jack the Prime Minister under the above scenario.

    Of course, if the Conservatives get their majority, this scenario melts away. Also, if Jack does come out on top of his coalition partners, it may well be that the Liberals will turn the tide and side with the Conservatives.

    Only time will tell, however, be forwarned should the NDP hold such sway in Canada, the stock market, big business and subesequently, your Retirefund could be in for a thorough, socialist thrashing.



    "The problem with a socialist government is, they always run out of other people's money"

    Margaret Thatcher
    former Prime Minister of England

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Comments (4)
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  • Hans_in_MTL
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
    Don't believe the hype. The best sources I have been able to find in Canada suggest a modest change at the very most. The hype is standard media scare-mongering, which blather like this feeds into. News needs news to seem new.


    Also, the Liberals and Conservatives will not group together. However, all parties will act in their own self-interest. Surprise!


    Best current source to see likely outcome:
    Most likely current outcome: little change.


    Donald Trump's hair is sadly more interesting and arguably has more likelihood of affecting your retirement savings.
    29 Apr 2011, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Retirefund
    , contributor
    Comments (770) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » For your information, I don't pay attention to hype, and I don't "blather". I am an investor concerned about my investments.


    I live in Canada and I know Canadian politics! The chances of Jack Layton having real power in the country are at this writing, about 50-50, due to the possible scenario I have laid out. (did you actually read it?)


    I was making a point regarding the possible impact on both the Canadian dollar and markets if such a scenario were to play out. (both of which I am heavily invested in)


    I have no interest in the "Clown Prince" of American politics, or his hair. (what has any of that got to do with investing - are you actually an investor or just an NDP supporter?)
    30 Apr 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Hans_in_MTL
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
    I invite you to look at the best available political data. My current preferred source is the one listed above; feel free to suggest others, though tonight it will be moot in any event. Your "50% probability" reference is not accurate by any metric of which I am aware.


    I live in Quebec, keep abreast of politics across the country and continent, and am invested in Canada.


    Also - full disclosure - I dislike inane, stereotyped partisan writing that fails to provide any suggestions as to actual investment strategies. What do you concretely recommend doing? Right now this is a political puff piece that offers no insight into how one might hedge or profit. Scaremongering. Do you have something better than fear to offer us?
    2 May 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Retirefund
    , contributor
    Comments (770) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Because of the possible scenario I laid out, (and many other macro reasons including the upcoming U.S. debt ceiling judgement day, a Greek default or possible Irish default for examples) I have been taking profit for the past two weeks. I was also concerned with Canadian dollar investments, and to take the other side of huge shorting of the USD I increased my position (albiet short term) in the usd.


    Election results tonight indicate a Conservative majority, thereby negating the possibility of an NDP Prime Minister. However the NDP did more than double their seats at the expense of both the Liberals and BQ (as I had suggested it would) and have become the official opposition for the first time in history.


    Although nothing on the national stage could negate a black swan type event internationally, for now the real winners are Canadian investors.


    Hans (Quebec): good luck with your new NDP representation in Parliament.
    2 May 2011, 11:06 PM Reply Like
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