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David Moenning is a the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com. In addition to providing free and subscription-based portfolios on "State", Dave is a full-time money manager and the President and Chief Investment Strategist of a Chicago-based Registered Investment Advisory firm. Dave... More
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Daily State of the Markets
  • Remember, Do Nothing, Absolutely Nothing Until... 0 comments
    Sep 27, 2013 8:06 AM

    Daily State of the Markets
    Friday, September 27, 2013

    In case the action over the past few days hasn't made it clear, traders appear to be implementing an age-old Wall Street-ism right now... "Do nothing, absolutely nothing until there is something to do." Put another way, it looks like most investors have decided to sit on their hands until the storm brewing in Washington passes.

    This means that the algos are large and in charge at the present time. Stock indices are now moving violently each and every time a politician says something, regardless of whether or not the comment made was meaningful. So, raise your hand if you too are growing tired of the stock market lurching in either direction to the tune of 0.5 percent every time a computer runs a series of programs.

    Given that there haven't been any real developments in the debt debate, the current spastic intraday moves are likely to stick around a while. As such, the remainder of this morning's missive will focus on investing strategy. What follows may be simplistic, but most investors can benefit from a big-picture strategy session every once in a while.

    As Peter Lynch Said, Invest in What You Know

    It is a safe bet that most investors focus a fair amount of their investment portfolios on the U.S. stock market. Since stocks have been the best performing asset class over time, this certainly makes sense. It also follows that investors prefer to invest in what they know and where they feel comfortable. So again, investing in the U.S. seems to fit the bill here.

    Since the turn of the century however, investors have discovered that investing in the U.S. stock market also entails a little thing called risk. Two devastating bear markets, both of which produced losses in excess of 50 percent, within a nine year period has forced both individual and professional investors alike to reconsider the concept of risk. Every investor now knows that risk happens fast in the stock market and that it can be very, very painful.

    So, the key question is how do investors capture the benefits of the stock market and yet avoid the mind-numbing declines that tend to occur during bear markets?

    If memory serves, since 1900, the average bull market has produced gains of more than 80% while the average bear market has sported losses about 31%. And if you spend some time with a calculator, this combination can actually work to an investor's advantage over the long-term.

    The Problem Is...

    No offense intended, but the fact of the matter is the vast majority of individuals who invest in the stock market don't really know what they are doing. They don't understand the secular and cyclical trends. They don't know that most moves are overdone. They don't recognize what actually drives the market. They don't get the idea that the market is a discounting mechanism. They are confused when a company reports good earnings and the stock goes down. And they don't know how to recognize risk levels in the market.

    Thus, too many investors wind up reacting to their emotions by buying when things "feel safe" and then selling when the pain of loss becomes unbearable. This means that investors basically implement a strategy of buying high and selling low. And the bottom line is this math just doesn't work very well.

    A Three Step Plan

    In an environment where markets move fast - in both directions - investors need to have a plan, a strategy, or a discipline to guide them. In addition, investors need to be able to stick with their plan/strategy when times get tough. And if the first part of that equation isn't hard enough, the second part (the sticking to it) can prove challenging - especially if you don't really understand your plan.

    So... step one is to decide on a plan of attack. Frankly, it doesn't matter whether your plan is to dollar-cost average (buy each and every month) for the next twenty years or if you are going to use a sophisticated long/short trading strategy to try and make money in all environments. Again the key is to have a plan.

    Step two is to understand your plan. This means knowing the positives and negatives of your plan. It also means understanding when/how your particular strategy can struggle (don't kid yourself, ALL investing strategies struggle from time to time and/or in certain environments). In all honesty, this is not an easy task. But the point is to take the time to get to know how your approach is expected to work in various market environments.

    And then step three is to implement your plan on a consistent basis. In short, this means that you don't get to pick and choose when you will follow your strategy. No, you've got to commit. And yes, this means you have to continue to implement your plan even when it isn't working very well. That's what disciplined investors do. And this is also why disciplined investors can succeed in the long run.

    Finally, if you don't feel qualified to pick a plan or you don't know the ins and outs of a plan that you've chosen, feel free to contact us. This website is here to help investors. So don't be shy, we really are here to help.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    Concerns over the political games being played in Washington are hurting the markets again today in the early going. In case you are wondering why traders care so much about the situation in D.C., Bloomberg reports that a Government shutdown would hit GDP by as much as 1.4%. So, with the 10/1 deadline for a deal to avert a shutdown quickly approaching, it appears that traders may want to avoid possible headline risks over the weekend as futures are pointing to a lower open on Wall Street.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.26%
    - Hong Kong: +0.35%
    - Shanghai: +0.19%
    - London: -0.80%
    - Germany: -0.22%
    - France: -0.14%
    - Italy: -0.98%
    - Spain: -0.58%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.44 to $102.59

    Gold: +$11.10 to $1335.20

    Dollar: higher against the yen, lower vs. euro, and pound.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.631%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: -7.12
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: -42
    - NASDAQ Composite: -11.64

    Thought For The Day...

    Do you think to say "thank you" for the good things that happen each day?

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

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