Seeking Alpha

David Moenning's  Instablog

David Moenning
Send Message
David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
My company:
StateoftheMarkets.com
My blog:
Daily State of the Markets
  • Missed Big Gains In 2013? Look Before You Leap! 0 comments
    Dec 11, 2013 8:01 AM

     

     

    Daily State of the Markets
    Wednesday, December 11, 2013

    To be sure, it has been an interesting year in the stock market. At the beginning of the year, almost no one saw gains of 20 to 30 percent for the stock market indices and most macro players continued to believe that the next crisis was right around the corner.

    And yet with just a handful trading days left in the year, the S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000, and Midcap indices all sit near all-time highs while the NASDAQ composite remains near the highest level seen since the tech bubble burst in the spring of 2000. Worse yet for those who saw the glass as being at least half empty twelve months ago is the fact that 2013 did not provide many decent entry points.

    Uh, It's a Bull Market

    The fast-money types almost universally believe that the stock market is mean-reverting animal. Trends don't last and prices will always pull back to some special level that only they can see. "Buying strength is for chumps - the smart money waits for a pullback to take a position" seems to be the battle cry among this crowd. How many times have you seen the geniuses on T.V. say, "We can't buy that here; wait for prices to come in."

    Except, wait, oh, that's right, calendar year 2013 offered exactly two "dips" worthy of purchase - and both came at times when there was a decent amount of uncertainty about the sustainability of the market's gains. In other words, it's been tough to get in. And because of this fact, a great many managers - especially the two-and-twenty crowd - have dramatically underperformed again this year.

    Perhaps the key thing that many of Wall Street's masters of the universe got wrong this year is the fact that it's a bull market.

    S&P 500 Weekly
    (click to enlarge)

    Despite the fact that there were two devastating bear markets (where the S&P plunged more than 50 percent both times) in the nine year period between 2000 and 2008, the simple fact is this is how a bull market tends to act. Yet, unless an investor has been at this game for more than fifteen years, they may not be familiar with the concept.

    Advice Providers Experiencing "Gain Regret"

    Then there are the financial advisors leaning heavily on their Nobel Prize winning diversification strategies from Morningstar. It's a great business plan - especially in a bull market. You pay Morningstar a fee each month and then invest client assets in portfolios based on all that academic gobbliegook.

    But one question: How's that static diversification doing? How's that exposure to the bond market, gold, and the emerging markets working out this year? The answer is that clients seem to be complaining about the money they didn't make this year. It's a little something known in the business as "gain regret."

    But... Look Before You Leap Here!

    So here's the dilemma. A great many investors have missed out on some very good gains this year. And given that 2014 is right around the corner, it's time to make plans regarding next year's strategy.

    Given that the tenets of behavioral finance are clearly in play here, it is a safe bet that many investors are going to want to up their exposure to the stock market in 2014.

    Unfortunately, this is called "performance chasing" or investing in the "hot dot." In short, using such an approach is fraught with danger as investors wind up "buying high" and then "selling low" (giving up on a strategy or position if it doesn't do what they expect). And anybody with a functioning calculator can attest, such a strategy doesn't tend to work out very well.

    Questions Worth Asking

    So, before investors decide to make up for their mistake of being underinvested in the U.S. stock market in 2013 and bomb in for 2014, they may want to review the status of the bull market.

    Some questions worth asking at this stage include:

    • How far do bull markets tend to go?
    • Are stocks overbought?
    • Is the market overvalued?
    • What's the risk?
    • When might the next bear show up?

    Later this week, we will take a look at some of these questions and attempt to formulate a plan for investors that may be looking to increase their exposure to the stock market.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    The big news of the day is the budget deal reached in Washington between House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray. Assuming the bipartisan deal can be approved by both houses of Congress, the deal would avert a repeat of the government shutdown seen in the fall and cut spending over the next two years. U.S. stock futures initially reacted positively to the news. However, the enthusiasm seems to have been curbed since then.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -0.62%
    - Hong Kong: -1.71%
    - Shanghai: -1.50%
    - London: +0.36%
    - Germany: +0.23%
    - France: +0.71%
    - Italy: -0.12%
    - Spain: +0.42%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.06 to $98.45

    Gold: -$5.40 to $1255.70

    Dollar: higher against the yen and pound, lower vs. euro.

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.823%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +1.88
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +19
    - NASDAQ Composite: -0.90

    Thought For The Day...

    "My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." -Thomas Jefferson

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, MDY.

Back To David Moenning's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.