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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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Daily State of the Markets
  • Learning The Crisis Play Book 0 comments
    Mar 5, 2014 8:08 AM

    Daily State of the Markets
    Wednesday, March 5, 2014

    What a difference a day makes, right? On Monday, the bears could be heard telling anyone who would listen that the sky was indeed falling in response to Russia's "invasion" of Crimea. ("No, really, seriously, we mean it this time!")

    The idea being promoted was that Vladimir Putin was doing his best Saddam Hussein imitation by planning to annex some additional beach-front property for Mother Russia. Those traders dressed in their fur caps suggested that the West would object, sanctions would fail and before you could look up the spelling of Ukraine's new President, World War III would be at hand.

    Oh, and lest we forget, there was also talk of the economic calamity that was sure to ensue. Remember, Europe gets one-third of its oil from Russia via pipelines that run through the Ukraine. Therefore, once troops started moving and the drones started flying their bombing missions, the Eurozone was sure to sink back into recession. In turn, this would cause the credit crisis to flare up and investors would be back on full-time Merkel watch. Joy.

    A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Ultimatum

    To hear the fast-money types tell it, Tuesday was supposed to be a very tough day to be in the stock market. You see, there were reports on Monday that Russian forces had issued an ultimatum to the Ukrainians that they'd best stand down on Tuesday, or else.

    The assumption was that the Ukrainian troops would hold their ground, that Russian troops would respond by force and that the internet would soon be filled with video of the violent conflict taking place in Crimea. As such, holding short positions overnight appeared to be a no-brainer to many.

    But the deadline came and went, and there were no shots fired. Well, okay, there were a couple of warning shots fired over the bow, so to speak. But then Russian President Putin mentioned that Russia didn't want to annex Crimea and that military action was a measure of last resort.

    Boom. Just like that, the crisis in Crimea joined January's much ballyhooed emerging markets crisis in the "little crises that couldn't" category.

    Soon there was word that Russia's military forces were backing off (reports indicated that the military "exercises" in the area, which had been scheduled for some time, had ended and that the troops were heading home). Suddenly, the fear was gone. Suddenly, the WWIII scenario seemed silly again. And suddenly, the bears were scrambling for the exits to cover those no-brainer shorts.

    Were You Surprised?

    Let's see a show of hands... who was surprised to see U.S. stock futures up 20 points before the market opened yesterday? And then feel free to nod your head if your reaction to the Dow's 228 surge and the new all-time highs for the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Midcaps and the Russell 2000 Smallcap indices was something akin to, "Wait, what?"

    Anyone surprised by Tuesday's spike higher - and this includes the masters of the macro universe who were so sure that things were going to go to heck in a hand basket over the geopolitical tensions in Crimea - forgot one thing. They simply forgot the way the "crisis play book" works.

    The Crisis Play Book

    One of the most important rules of engagement during a crisis is an oldie but a goodie: "Panic early or not at all!"

    Crises in the market tend to be very emotional affairs. The indices "whoosh" lower when folks figure out that there could be a problem. Then fear becomes entrenched and everybody who wants to sell, does so (hence the idea that it is best to panic early).

    Once things turn ugly, something eventually comes along to create a sigh of relief. This is called the dead-cat bounce phase. And then, after a retest of the lows, investors finally figure out that the sun will indeed come up tomorrow and those looking for bargains start to dig around in the rubble.

    The War Edition

    For military conflicts, the game is a little different. The first Gulf War in 1990 was a perfect example for a generation of investors and money managers who hadn't been around during the Korean conflict or Vietnam.

    The game plan is pretty simple here. Stocks are sold on the fear of war. Stocks are then sold again once the war begins. But after the bombs start flying, it is how the war is going that dictates the action in the stock market.

    In 1990, there was a great deal of anxiety about Iraq's Republican Guard. However, it turned out that there was far more bark than bite amongst this unit and once it became clear that the Iraqis weren't going to put up much of a fight, stocks began to rally in earnest.

    The bottom line is that stocks tend to rally when there is a reprieve, a sigh of relief, or, as was the case Tuesday, a de-escalation of a potential crisis. So, the blast higher on Tuesday appeared to be simply following the script, which, by the way, included a boatload of short-covering.

    The problem for investors in the near-term is that neither the crisis nor the armed conflict scripts may be in play here. As such, it is probably a good idea to avoid becoming married to any sort of macro view and to let price be your guide for a while.

    Publishing Note: I have early meetings the remainder of the week and will publish reports as time permits.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    Now that the panic over the situation in Crimea seems to have died down, investors appear to be turning their attention back to the basic stuff. Overnight we learned that China will continue to target an economic growth rate of 7.5% (there had been concerns about the Chinese creating a target range). In Europe, the Services PMI data was pretty good with Eurozone coming in at a 32-month high. Here at home, traders are waiting on some data with futures pointing modestly higher in the early going.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: +1.20%
    - Hong Kong: -0.34%
    - Shanghai: -0.89%
    - London: -0.54%
    - Germany: -0.19%
    - France: -0.18%
    - Italy: +0.51%
    - Spain: +0.49%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$0.35 to $102.98

    Gold: -$20.00 at $1335.90

    Dollar: lower against the yen and pound, higher vs. euro

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.714%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: +2.09
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +19
    - NASDAQ Composite: +3.41

    Thought For The Day...

    Never forget that the first rule of life, medicine, and money management is to do no harm...

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

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