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David Moenning is a the Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital, which focuses on active risk management of the U.S. stock market. Dave is also the proprietor of StateoftheMarkets.com, which provides free and subscription-based portfolio services. Dave began his investment career in 1980... More
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Daily State of the Markets
  • The Way The Game Is Played These Days 0 comments
    Mar 12, 2014 8:02 AM

    Daily State of the Markets
    Wednesday, March 12, 2014

    Call it a pullback, a pause, a consolidation, the beginning of a correction, a dance to the downside, an outside day, a failure at resistance, a near-term reversal, a pivot, or a good old fashioned sloppy session. But whatever label you prefer to slap on Tuesday's algo-induced decline, it appears that a test of near-term support is now in order and that the bears may have gotten up off of the mat yesterday.

    The problem with a day like Tuesday is there wasn't an obvious catalyst for the fill-in-the-blank session. The popular press blamed China, the Ukraine, and worries about the action in the industrial metals for the decline (apparently Dr. Copper (NYSE: JJC) is having a really rough go of it lately as copper plunged to a fresh multi-year low on Tuesday).

    Blame It On...

    But before you agree with the assessment that it was the excuse du jour that caused traders to hit the sell button early and often on Tuesday, it is important to recognize that there were no new developments on either the China growth or Ukraine front yesterday. And for the record, the death spiral taking place in the industrial metals didn't exactly begin on Tuesday morning.

    Fannie and Freddie...

    Then there were Fannie and Freddie. Another problem cited for Tuesday's downside turnabout was the horrific action in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) Daily

    The above chart shows you what a 31 percent decline in what was once the country's most important mortgage financing institution looks like. Fannie Mae's stock was nearly cut in half in a little over an hour Tuesday after the Senate Banking Committee reached a bipartisan agreement on the framework to eliminate Fannie and Freddie, and to reform the U.S. mortgage financing system.

    Given the lack of catalysts available Tuesday, one couldn't be blamed for thinking that this type of destruction in the financial sector might have triggered selling in the major stock market indices.

    The funny thing here is that while the headline-reading algos do love a good news flash, the details of reforms coming out of the Senate Banking Committee couldn't really be considered news. According to reports, there was a broad consensus that the bill would call for the unwinding of Fannie and Freddie. So, sorry to say, even a dive of -46 percent in just 90 minutes isn't the reason the bears returned to the corner of Broad and Wall yesterday.

    Or The Algos...

    In fact, if you check the action on a 1-minute chart of the S&P 500, it will become clear that none of the catalysts being promoted as the source to yesterday's decline match up with any of the persistent sell programs that began at 11:00 am eastern.

    The first program hit the market for 12 quick points as the SPX fell from 1882 to 1870 in short order. This wasn't exactly surprising as the new game amongst the big HFT/algo players is to hit the index with sell programs each time a new high is made and/or attempted. So, with the SPX briefly moving above 1880 at 10:59 am, the sell algos arrived like clockwork and down she went.

    Given the success of the initial "attack" on the SPX, it appeared that the sellers gained some momentum. You could hear the word "reversal" being bandied about amongst the fast-money types. And from there, new sell algos hit the tape every half hour or so.

    Who Really Cares Anyway?

    What's the point in rehashing the blow-by-blow of a modest decline when the indices were overbought and sentiment was perhaps a bit frothy, you ask?

    The answer is simple. Yes, stocks had become overbought. Yes, as we've chronicled of late, the sentiment indicators have been flashing warning signs. And yes, it appears that the market was set up for a pullback.

    The problem is (a) there was really no obvious reason for stocks to decline on Tuesday and (b) the action was clearly algo-driven. So, either the big boys with their expensive computer toys knew something the rest of us didn't - or - the computers simply pushed the market around again yesterday.

    The bears will argue that stocks simply fell of their own weight and that it was the technical reversal that was the real key to the pullback. And on that note, our furry friends weren't shy in offering the opinion yesterday that the action does not have positive implications for the near-term.

    It's The Way The Game Is Played...

    However, having been a player in this game for more than 25 years, I can say that stocks tend to reverse course for a reason - and there simply wasn't much of reason on display yesterday. So, while this is simply one man's opinion, yesterday's action may just be an example of the way the game is played these days. Sometimes that action means something and sometimes it just doesn't. As such, it will be interesting to see where we go from here.

    Looking for a disciplined approach to managing stock market risk on a daily basis? Check Out My "Daily Decision" System. Forget the fast money and the latest, greatest option trade. What investors need is a strategy to keep them "in" the stock market during bull markets and on the sidelines (or short) during bear markets.

    Turning to This Morning...

    Tuesday's selling on Wall Street spilled over into first Asia and then Europe overnight as concerns about China's growth rate as well as the recent bond default by a Chinese company seem to be the primary focal points. On the macro front, industrial production in Europe posted a decline for the second consecutive month. There are no important economic reports scheduled for release in the U.S. and futures are pointing to a decline at the open.

    Pre-Game Indicators

    Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

    Major Foreign Markets:
    - Japan: -1.51%
    - Hong Kong: -2.59%
    - Shanghai: -1.69%
    - London: -0.98%
    - Germany: -1.33%
    - France: -1.44%
    - Italy: -0.39%
    - Spain: -1.11%

    Crude Oil Futures: -$1.72 to $98.31

    Gold: +$12.70 at $1359.40

    Dollar: higher against the yen and pound, lower vs. euro

    10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.758%

    Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
    - S&P 500: -5.38
    - Dow Jones Industrial Average: -33
    - NASDAQ Composite: -11.30

    Thought For The Day...

    "Surround yourself with the best people you can find, delegate authority, and don't interfere." - Ronald Reagan

    Positions in stocks mentioned: none

    Follow Me on Twitter: @StateDave


    The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

    Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

    The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

    The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

    Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

    Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

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