Seeking Alpha

No Mean Sum's  Instablog

No Mean Sum
Send Message
I write about the theory and practice of investing and in doing so I try to take a value investing approach. You can follow me here on twitter: https://twitter.com/nomeansum
My blog:
No Mean Sum
  • TRLG - Seeing The Wood From The Trees  0 comments
    May 14, 2013 8:02 PM | about stocks: TRLG

    TRLG Q1 Earnings

    When in my previous post I forecast that TRLG would disappoint either this earnings release or soon I have to admit I was hoping to be right and sooner than later. I could not have imagined that what I would get would be even better, and that I would be dead wrong.

    Here's what happened: according to Forbes analyst's were looking for earnings per share to be 34 cents per diluted share, against 41 cents in Q1 2012. Adjusted for expenses related to acquisitions and executive termination, earnings were 22 cents. A solid miss by any measure. But it didn't matter; True Religion announced they are being acquired by ToweBrook Capital Partners for $32.00 per common share. The stock immediately popped 8% leaving anyone who was short to be carried out on a stretcher.

    I can't short stocks because of my employer doesn't allow it, so I wasn't involved. But honestly if I could I probably would have been short a small amount and taken a hit. Like everyone else I knew there was a chance they'd be taken over; they announced they were exploring options, and even fired the CEO. But I figured if it was going to happen they wouldn't do it on the day of an earnings announcement - obviously I don't really know how these things work - and they did.

    In the end this actually worked out better than I could have hoped for. I didn't lose any money, and I learned a lesson; How you can be right on one aspect of your thesis and still make a decision that is operationally wrong. In investing, you don't get many free lessons like these.

    My Two Cents On The Deal

    Interest rates are at all time lows, the junk bond market is on fire. This may have been bound to happen once they got the CEO out of the picture. And net-net the transaction actually kind of makes sense for everyone.

    For the shareholders, aside from the near impossible task of the board finding a solid executive team to replace the existing bunch, this was probably the best option (take the money and run). The buyers at Towerbrook probably figure they can take the cash out, lever this sucker up and keep the ship afloat, that everything will be alright. Hell, they might even get lucky and find someone with some taste to spice up the offerings and really make some money. Everyone might win.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: Mergers, Retail, Equity, Private Equity Stocks: TRLG
Back To No Mean Sum's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.