Norman Tweed's  Instablog

Norman Tweed
Send Message
Retiree interested in stocks and financial instruments, especially dividend producing stocks. In the 20th century, I was an electrical engineer with Dominion Resources. I use a dividend growth investment style. Quick rules of thumb for complex questions, like fair value p/e using the Gordon... More
  • Business Cycle 27 comments
    Jan 6, 2012 10:57 AM
    1. The drawing below depicts timing of investment during the business cycle.
    2. Timing is based on the Federal Reserve interest rate for Fed Funds.
    3. It demonstrates sector rotation.
Back To Norman Tweed's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (27)
Track new comments
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    Norman. What in the world is this supposed to be? Did you forget the narrative that goes with this?

     

    Dave
    6 Jan 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dave--This goes with my recent article on financial stocks. It was used in a reply to David Van Knapp's question about why one needs diversification. You might like the article:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Jan 2012, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Norman. I don't know why I didn't notice the tag for your article---you are on my followed list and your article should pop up for me to see. I hate this new SA format. (Well, I'm not the kind of person who likes "change")

     

    Dave
    7 Jan 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dave--When you have seen enough changes, you get used to it. Change is the 21st century. I think you might like the controversy exemplified by this article. It is more about change of the system than most I have written.
    7 Jan 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    i magnified the image in order to read it. using chrome and clicking converted the image to script.
    7 Jan 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » tragicslip--Powerful chart, which worked well in normal times when the Fed was predictable and followed the business cycle, instead of using QE and permanent 0% Fed Funds. The cycle still exists, but even the industries are changing. Just look at MCD. It has become a consumer defensive stock and makes money all the time.
    7 Jan 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    thank you for putting it up. the change in market cycles you describe adds more disorder into the system. that generally creates opportunity and a loss in shareholder value.

     

    that would be a physics way to explain P/E compression and increasing volatility a la flash crashes.

     

    remaining flexible in our approach to the market (even if that just means modifying the drawing above) is a must to get ahead.
    8 Jan 2012, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks tragicslip for your insights! I think you hit it on the head "Flexibility".
    8 Jan 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    Maybe, Norman. Maybe. I'm not so sure. I miss the days when you could tell the difference between a 57 and a 58 Chevy. You never mistook one for a Ford.

     

    Call me old fashioned. I still use a "fountain pen." (Mt Blanc of course).

     

    Dave
    7 Jan 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dave--I knew you would like my article on Financials. It didn't get the page hits it deserved because you got there too late. However, You said what I wish I could have said.

     

    Those golden days of yesteryear: The '57 Chevy--there are a bunch of them at our local cruiser club shows--was the car I longed for. I ended up with a Plymouth Road Runner because my wife like the floor shift. Once I retired, I moved on to the stubby pencil in my back pocket and did away with pens. You are still at the age when you should go first class, even if it dates you.

     

    There is still another round left in the "Crisis" of this Seculum. You and I have enjoined the enemy and it frees the soul.
    7 Jan 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe your Financials article didn't get a lot of hits. Although I've noticed that a lot of articles are not gathering up a lot of comments either. My article had a lot of page hits, initially, but not much commentary. Then the comments took off and the page hits fell. Go fiqure.

     

    It's not about the page hits for me. It's about the conversations with others who are like minded. It's one of the things I like about church. You are often around people who think/feel the same way you do about the spiritual side of life.

     

    Dave
    7 Jan 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We agree on both counts. I don't get paid for the articles, anyway, so it's the commentary and getting my thoughts out that drives me to produce. The conversations provide an insight into the spiritual side, which becomes more important the older one gets.
    7 Jan 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Anderson
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Norman: pencil in the back pocket--sounds dangerous!
    7 Jan 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » nothingveryclever--It is a stubby (4 inches long) with the point broken off. When I need to draw a line or check something off, I pull out my knife and sharpen the point. Since it is in my back pocket, I keep it horizontal and never sit on it. Works wonders and hasn't injured me yet.
    7 Jan 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    That's funny! I used to have a drill instructor who said he could kill me with a 4" pocket knife. I don't know if he could have or not, but I wasn't going to find out--he was crazy.

     

    Dave
    7 Jan 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It's pretty hard to do with such a small knife! Some people can kill you with their bear hands.
    7 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    Norman, I hope you mean "bare" hands, which would of course be "nakkid" hands. "Bear" hands are ususally found on bears and if a human has those, he will definitely kill you--or at least open you up like a can of green beans. That small knife would also have to make a lot of sticks before damage would be done--but there is no doubt, having been stabbed one time, that it really hurts like hell!

     

    Dave
    8 Jan 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dave, You caught me in the same kind of word error that my wife catches me in all the time. I get one spelling of a word caught in my mind and forget all the rest. If spell check doesn't catch it, it's gone.
    8 Jan 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    bear hands: hands that have fingers on them that don't fit in bowling balls.
    8 Jan 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » tragicslip--My wife says they're claws!
    8 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    The bigger question, though, is this: "Do Bear Hands Have Usable Thumbs: in other words, is a bear a marsuipal?" (A title for a new article perhaps?)
    8 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great idea! I think bears are mammals, but there are koala bears, which are marsupials. They appear to have thumbs:

     

    http://bit.ly/AgytDZ

     

    There could be some important discoveries made in this search. However, from what I read, they are not real bears.
    8 Jan 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    So, bears do not have opposable thumbs? Even though they can eat you pretty easily. Without thumbs. Intesting. And Koala's are not really bears? I need to start watching National Geo TV.

     

    Dave
    8 Jan 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dave--There's a whole new world waiting out there!
    9 Jan 2012, 03:32 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Allan Schwartz
    , contributor
    Comments (20920) | Send Message
     
    "is a bear a marsuipal?"

     

    And what would a marsupial market look like? :-)
    9 Jan 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Norman Tweed
    , contributor
    Comments (7483) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Most likely a kangeroo hopping.
    10 Jan 2012, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  • David Crosetti
    , contributor
    Comments (13625) | Send Message
     
    Norman: That's what I'm aftaid of......
    9 Jan 2012, 05:46 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • For IRA contributions, my daughter bought PSEC and VIMSX.
    Aug 11, 2016
  • My daughter's trucking business just bought MTGE and APD to round out all 11 GIX sectors. Her business portfolio is equal weighted.
    Aug 11, 2016
  • Placed limit order on $MTGEP @ $24. Need to pay higher RMDs and this preferred looks reliable.
    Jul 10, 2016
More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.