Alan Robert Ross'  Instablog

Alan Robert Ross
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I started investing while getting my Ph.D. at McGill University. After 25 years as a Professor, I quit to do something more exciting and more difficult: live off of my investments. For quite some time, I specialized in Canadian Oil & Gas Trusts, other high income opportunities and special... More
My company:
Trust Intelligence
My blog:
Trust Intelligence
  • If You Paid Attention To My Articles, You Got Paid 9 comments
    May 2, 2014 10:44 AM | about stocks: PVCT, AOCIF, OAS, YCS, STB, LINEQ, LNCOQ

    I have not written anything for Seeking Alpha in quite a while because I was tired of them rejecting actionable research because it did not fit their discriminatory policy regarding Biotech.

    One of those rejected articles was about shorting DNDN when it was about $3.30 and it is now barely $2.50. It was based upon Gross Margins that are about half the industry average and dooms their operation unless they get themselves a better and cheaper-to-make drug.

    Another was an update on the risked net present value of the profits of PV-10, Provectus' (NYSEMKT:PVCT) extraordinary cancer drug. I originally recommended the company in an article that Seeking Alpha made "PRO" in Sept. 2013 when it was at about 80 cents. It is now at $2.40 and is likely to get listed on the NYSE soon, shortly before the FDA decides whether to approve its application for Breakthrough Therapy Designation. The rejected article was suggesting purchase again when the stock was half the current price. Seeking Alpha did not like it because I used normal financial analysis to value and risk future cash flows. Apparently they think that is a bad thing, but anyone who bought the stock and was patient has not. This still has the potential to be a 10 bagger from here, but Seeking Alpha policy will keep that from being in a normal article.

    And then there was the article I did on AutoCanada (OTC:AOCIF) in the fall of 2013, when it was $38. I was predicting it would increase its dividend for the 11th straight quarter and it did. It has increased the dividend every quarter since that, as well. It just made a deal to grow its dealerships by about 25% on top of showing record results, EVERY quarter since my article, both in same store results and overall. It is up another $2.50 today to over C$72 (ACQ on the TSX). And less than 1700 investors reading this site in the past 8 months have bothered to read the article!

    I did not like Student Transportation (NASDAQ:STB) when I wrote my articles (and I owned it for years during which the company always made accretive acquisitions but managed to never improve per share metrics). And I don't like it now. Those who care about the dividend, and not whether the company lies to them or has a sustainable business model, don't mind because the dividends have made up for the small price decline.

    Same thing for LINE/LNCO: an unsustainable business model that buys off shareholders with too high dividends so that the company has to borrow for capex. It has to periodically swallow other companies to obscure the accounting, digging themselves deeper into unsustainability. But dividend lovers can overlook just about anything if you offer them a high yield (until the eventual reckoning).

    I still like Oasis (NYSE:OAS) as one of the best managed mid-sized E&Ps in the petroleum universe. Maturity has reduced their growth rate though and that will make them less lucrative as an investment in a sector that loves growth. Smart people run it and they still will grow faster than any company their size.

    The only other article I wrote was about shorting the Yen using the ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS), which has been a good trade on and off. Japan, its cultural rigidity and deflation/debt problem, the birthplace of ZIRP and the leveraged carry trade, is still one of the base reasons we have had the Bizarro World Investment climate and the Panic of 2008. The country is a conformist ostrich that simultaneously keeps its head in the sand, while trying to run away from its real problems... and somehow manages not to break its own neck. I am afraid that when push comes to shove, a Japanese collapse is going to hurt the global financial system. So I hold mostly cash, not securities.

    At the moment, I am most bullish on Provectus but it will seem risky to the typical investor unless they do significant due diligence. I do have a discussion thread on the free part of my website where I help people with that, here:

    And I have added to my AutoCanada position since I wrote the article and still own it. I only cover that one now in my Premium Service and with <$17 worth of page views for the SA article, I will not waste my time again (although that is $17 more than I am getting paid for this article!). This one is surely proof that you can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. AutoCanada is the only public consolidator of the Canadian auto industry and has a huge potential for continued growth, whether US investors ignore it or not.

    I have "donated" my time to write this article as a thank you to those people who have decided to "follow" me here. At the moment, I don't plan on writing more articles for this site, although I could change my mind.

    Note that I have not bothered to put links to my Seeking Alpha articles because I presume you can just search this site for my author name and you will find them.

    Best of luck to you all, but if you are following me, you probably know that it helps to have data in addition to the luck!

    Disclosure: I am long PVCT, AOCIF.

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Comments (9)
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  • funnyzguy
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
    Good title for an article and Thank you the ACQ pick has been a great winner for me. ACQ is not followed or even widely known in the US. They reminded me of a Canadian version of AutoNation. Although they have lots more room for growth and less competitors.
    2 May 2014, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • holydawn
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
    I truly believe you have helped to bridge the gap between investors who weren't aware of the connecting the dots blog and amazing potential of pvct. thank you for that.
    2 May 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Alan Robert Ross
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Glad it helped.
    2 May 2014, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • jmabry2010
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
    Thank you Trust. I have done well with PVCT thanks to you. I hope you change your mind and continue writing for SA.
    2 May 2014, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • alaskasalmonfisher
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    I would also recommend a person start their due diligence by following the links provided here, particularly the link to Regardless of whether you are just starting or already deeply into it, you will find information that is of value.
    2 May 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • sfrue
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
    Trust, Your original Alpha article and subsequent coverage of PVCT have been outstanding. You brought the company to my attention and my investment in it has been quite profitable. Thank you and best wishes!
    2 May 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Alan Robert Ross
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the kind words, sfrue!
    Things seem to be progressing behind the scenes and the latest regulatory filings, if you read them carefully, are revealing. Apparently the ongoing liver trials are progressing relatively quickly AND providing positive results.


    The market does not begin to fathom the size of the liver cancer market because they are only focused on primary HCC.
    7 May 2014, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • evilbarbie
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
    As always I trust your intelligence Alan!
    6 May 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Alan Robert Ross
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks, Ms. Evil!
    Hopefully the need for continued due diligence will end this year.
    Stay tuned!
    7 May 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
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