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If You Paid Attention To My Articles, You Got Paid

|Includes:AOCIF, LINEQ, LNCOQ, OAS, Provectus Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (PVCT), STB, YCS

I have not written anything for Seeking Alpha in quite a while because I was tired of them rejecting actionable research because it did not fit their discriminatory policy regarding Biotech.

One of those rejected articles was about shorting DNDN when it was about $3.30 and it is now barely $2.50. It was based upon Gross Margins that are about half the industry average and dooms their operation unless they get themselves a better and cheaper-to-make drug.

Another was an update on the risked net present value of the profits of PV-10, Provectus' (NYSEMKT:PVCT) extraordinary cancer drug. I originally recommended the company in an article that Seeking Alpha made "PRO" in Sept. 2013 when it was at about 80 cents. It is now at $2.40 and is likely to get listed on the NYSE soon, shortly before the FDA decides whether to approve its application for Breakthrough Therapy Designation. The rejected article was suggesting purchase again when the stock was half the current price. Seeking Alpha did not like it because I used normal financial analysis to value and risk future cash flows. Apparently they think that is a bad thing, but anyone who bought the stock and was patient has not. This still has the potential to be a 10 bagger from here, but Seeking Alpha policy will keep that from being in a normal article.

And then there was the article I did on AutoCanada (OTC:AOCIF) in the fall of 2013, when it was $38. I was predicting it would increase its dividend for the 11th straight quarter and it did. It has increased the dividend every quarter since that, as well. It just made a deal to grow its dealerships by about 25% on top of showing record results, EVERY quarter since my article, both in same store results and overall. It is up another $2.50 today to over C$72 (ACQ on the TSX). And less than 1700 investors reading this site in the past 8 months have bothered to read the article!

I did not like Student Transportation (NASDAQ:STB) when I wrote my articles (and I owned it for years during which the company always made accretive acquisitions but managed to never improve per share metrics). And I don't like it now. Those who care about the dividend, and not whether the company lies to them or has a sustainable business model, don't mind because the dividends have made up for the small price decline.

Same thing for LINE/LNCO: an unsustainable business model that buys off shareholders with too high dividends so that the company has to borrow for capex. It has to periodically swallow other companies to obscure the accounting, digging themselves deeper into unsustainability. But dividend lovers can overlook just about anything if you offer them a high yield (until the eventual reckoning).

I still like Oasis (NYSE:OAS) as one of the best managed mid-sized E&Ps in the petroleum universe. Maturity has reduced their growth rate though and that will make them less lucrative as an investment in a sector that loves growth. Smart people run it and they still will grow faster than any company their size.

The only other article I wrote was about shorting the Yen using the ETF (NYSEARCA:YCS), which has been a good trade on and off. Japan, its cultural rigidity and deflation/debt problem, the birthplace of ZIRP and the leveraged carry trade, is still one of the base reasons we have had the Bizarro World Investment climate and the Panic of 2008. The country is a conformist ostrich that simultaneously keeps its head in the sand, while trying to run away from its real problems... and somehow manages not to break its own neck. I am afraid that when push comes to shove, a Japanese collapse is going to hurt the global financial system. So I hold mostly cash, not securities.

At the moment, I am most bullish on Provectus but it will seem risky to the typical investor unless they do significant due diligence. I do have a discussion thread on the free part of my website where I help people with that, here:

And I have added to my AutoCanada position since I wrote the article and still own it. I only cover that one now in my Premium Service and with <$17 worth of page views for the SA article, I will not waste my time again (although that is $17 more than I am getting paid for this article!). This one is surely proof that you can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. AutoCanada is the only public consolidator of the Canadian auto industry and has a huge potential for continued growth, whether US investors ignore it or not.

I have "donated" my time to write this article as a thank you to those people who have decided to "follow" me here. At the moment, I don't plan on writing more articles for this site, although I could change my mind.

Note that I have not bothered to put links to my Seeking Alpha articles because I presume you can just search this site for my author name and you will find them.

Best of luck to you all, but if you are following me, you probably know that it helps to have data in addition to the luck!

Disclosure: I am long PVCT, AOCIF.