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Alan Robert Ross
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I started investing while getting my Ph.D. at McGill University. My research was on behavioral correlates of neurological control of cardiovascular function. After 25 years as a Professor, I quit to do something more exciting and more difficult: live off of my investments. For quite some time, I... More
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  • CF To 2017: Why PVCT Can Afford To Complete Phase III Trials Without Further Dilution. 8 comments
    Aug 4, 2014 2:38 PM | about stocks: PVCT

    I have published an article today that provides projected PVCT expenses for normal operations and conducting Liver and Melanoma clinical trials under a variety of scenarios. Even in the less favorable scenarios it does not appear that Provectus will need to increase the fully-diluted share count in order to operate.

    There are a number of built-in sources of funding that will provide more than enough operating cash, despite what some fear or contend.

    Given that the existing data on Overall Survival and Progression-free Survival for PV-10 is much superior to the DTIC comparator group in the Phase III trials, PVCT stock at current levels appears grossly undervalued.

    Disclosure: The author is long PVCT.

    Stocks: PVCT
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Comments (8)
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  • joelkatz
    , contributor
    Comments (539) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Alan, I appreciate your work, and look forward that the shorts should get toast!
    4 Aug 2014, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Alan Robert Ross
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are welcome Joel.
    Your expectation about shorts being toasted, given that Major Pharma is going to buy PVCT at some point, makes sense.

     

    The upside potential is about 20 to 50 times the current price, which is even more than that when compared with the margin requirements on the short. Who in their right mind wants to hope to make 80 cents if a company collapses when the upside potential is $20 or more?

     

    Note that the shorts have never been able to deny the data, so they try misquote or attach the researchers or the management. While investors may be fooled, Major Pharma looks at data, not Seeking Alpha articles by bashing shorts trying to stampede those who have not done their due diligence.

     

    Here is a presentation that is completely explicit that PV-10 kill tumors directly and is a Systemic treatment because it enhances patients immunity.
    http://bit.ly/1luc59j

     

    Note the statement on two of the slides:
    "IL PV-10 Leads to Systemic Immunity in Melanoma Patients"

     

    What that says is clear. If you inject PV-10 into melanoma tumors (IL= Intralesional) it causes immunity to similar melanoma cells is throughout the body in addition to killing the tumor injected and other tumors that may not have been injected. The proof is in the research and some very clear data are summarized in the charts and pictures of cancer cells and patients' cancers in the presentation.
    4 Aug 2014, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • excapt
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Alan, I enjoy reading your creditable analysis on PVCT. I too am long on PVCT. On the prospect of the Major Pharma buyout, is that the reason for all the internal corporate movement, and relocation of PVCT HQ's, over the last month or so, and if the deadline for all these lawsuits has passed why are they still being listed.
    5 Aug 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Alan Robert Ross
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ex, they are not relocating their offices. The closest thing to what you are asking is that Management is doing it fiduciary duty and considering moving the domicile of the company if/when it would enhance shareholder value when the buyout comes.

     

    I know of no corporate changes recently, nor any reason to believe that PVCT will agree to a buyout at anything near the current price.

     

    If some clever Pharma makes a bid, putting the company "in play", if there are no other companies that come in to bid the price to at least ~$4 Billion + CVR, I'd expect the company to use the poison pill. Provectus has remained small all these years, rather than selling a piece to Majors, even though it would have provided lots of working capital. It is not logical to expect them to buckle under and accept an inadequate deal NOW, just when PV-10 has been established as a Systemic Immune System Booster and to be going in a Phase III trial where the results (beating traditional Chemo) is a safe bet.

     

    The different lawsuit filings are really just kockeying for position in one class action suit. Multiple and repeetitive PRs have been issued by the various different law firms vying to be the Lead because they have the shareholders with the largest loss in the class. Once the deadline is passed a judge decides who to award the title to as "lead plaintiff" and that person's lawyers tend to be the lawyers who pursue the case, hoping for a settlement that pays their hefty fees. Shareholders often get little to nothing, even if they win or settle out of court. The lawyers are in it for their fees (although some of them may be tied to short funds that find lawsuit press releases stampede naive investors).

     

    Provectus is insured and plans on fighting the claims of the ambulance chasers, but it may be up to the insurance company.

     

    You can sue anyone you want, regardless of whether or not you have a case. If a company settles and pays off plaintiff lawyers, they are likely to be sued again so the lawyers can be paid to go away.

     

    The current suit is not material for PVCT, IMO.
    6 Aug 2014, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • excapt
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for your reply Alan. I have some additional information to clarify my original comment. What I meant by PVCT's internal Corporate movement, is that per a press release on their website dated July 8, 2014, under the section noted as "CORPORATE DEVELOPEMENTS", they stated that they brought several high end people into their organization, and made the following statement regarding apparent relocation: "we have reincorporated in Delaware as this gives us more flexibility, clarity and predictability with respect to our Corporate governance".
    6 Aug 2014, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Alan Robert Ross
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Aha...

     

    Yes, they did reincorporate in DE at least partly because of the Corporate Law regime there that makes it easier to resist hostile takeovers. If some entity tries to buy a lot of shares and run a coup against the Directors, DE regulations make it more difficult for the insurgents to succeed.

     

    The company is looking at all the possibilities that may be available to enhance shareholder value in the eventual acquisition/sale they have been planning. Besides that being their fiduciary duty, it also directly affects the 4 managers as the company's largest individual shareholders. Management has been publicly talking about the buyout for quite a while and has an active data room with multiple major companies with access, after having signed Confidentiality Agreements.
    6 Aug 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • sfrue
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Alan,

     

    PVCT's recent public offering is a surprise to me and is going to result in about 20% dilution inclusive of warrants. What is your take? They seemed to suggest in their last conference call no additional new offerings would be needed for awhile. Makes me think the release of their upcoming (July 3) PHASE 1 on liver cancer may not look very impressive and/or their partnership deals in Asia are not working out. Just speculating, but long and not happy.
    20 Jun, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Danzimbabwe
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Looks like this trust"intelligence" crook is lying again.
    20 Jun, 02:41 PM Reply Like
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