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Money McBags is the preeminent financial humorist and money maker in the world. While known for his ability to find and invest in undervalued equities, Mr. McBags is also a world class dick joke teller, an aficionado of lovely ladies, and avid reader of books without pictures in them. With... More
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When Genius Prevailed
  • 6/4/10 Midafternoon Report: Jobs report challenges Marmaduke movie for biggest bomb released on Friday 0 comments
    Jun 4, 2010 5:31 PM | about stocks: CTG, MCD, WMT, JOEZ

    The (No) Labor Department's jobs report came out today and was well below analyst guesses which sent the market tumbling like Tony Hayward's Q score at a Greenpeace convention.  The US added 431k jobs in May which was the biggest increase in a single month in over a decade since the internet was founded and needed people to set up all of the tubes.  While on the surface that number seems spanktastic (though not nearly as spanktastic as Rosie Huntington-Whiteley who Money McBags would let hunt his whitey anytime), the market was surprisingly not fooled by it.  First of all, analysts had guessed 500k jobs would be created so the actual number came up shorter than a Kristen Bell skirt or Bernie Madoff's alibi.  But what makes matter worse is if one digs in to the numbers it is doubtful any real jobs were created despite the government claiming that a whopping 41k private sector jobs were created, and honestly, bragging about 41k private sector jobs being created is like bragging that you won the spelling bee on the short bus.  But let's look at the numbers more closely. 

    Of the 431k jobs created, 411k were temporary census workers and 31k were temporary service workers.  So already were at a net -11k permanent job creation number unless the government decides to turn the US into Oceania and thus take a new census every month thereby making those temporary jobs permanent.  Now the Labor Department said the government cut 20k permanent jobs so the 411k census jobs added led to a net 391k new government jobs.  So since the top line number was 431K, they solve for x in 431k - x = 391k and get "you're fucked," I mean ~40k for private sector job growth.  But here's the thing, as we said above, 31k of those ~40k were temporary fucking jobs so even using the government's hunky dory jobs created numbers, there were only ~10k PERMANENT private jobs added to the economy or 10k total permanent jobs lost including the government figures.  That number is more piss awful than having to listen to Lynyrd Skynyrd put to music any of George Will's essays about baseball.  But wait, it gets even fucking worse, like being married for 21 years, or being for 21 years and then finding out your spouse was gay the whole time, and yes I mean you Fran Drescher (though to be fair, having to hear Fran Drescher every morning might turn Money McBags gay as well).  You see the BLS uses something they call a birth death-model to estimate the lag between the creation of new businesses and the close of businesses that their survey misses in the short term.  They don't release the methodology so it is the biggest black box Money McBags has seen since Vanessa Del Rio graced the screen in the 1980s.  For May, the BLS' birth death model showed an increase of 215k jobs, which again is an estimate likely based on population levels, claims for unemployment, and shoving one's thumb far up one's own ass.  So based on our previous numbers where we showed 10k permanent private sector jobs were created and 10k overall permanent jobs were lost, we can now deduct a number somewhere between 0 and 215k from that (and Money McBags believes the number is closer to 215k since the birth-death model is likely more fictitious than strippers who dance just to put themselves through college) to get the real job DESTRUCTION number which was likely more negative than a disgruntled anion.  So we've got that going for us.

    Other tidbits from the jobs report show that 6.8MM people have been out of work for more than 6 months, the average length of unemployment is now 34 weeks which is the longest period since the government started keeping track in 1948, and Chewbacca was a wookie.  Some may spin the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.9% to 9.7% as positive but that was more likely caused by people leaving the workforce as the Labor Force Participation Rate, which oddly enough measures the labor force participation of working age adults, decreased to 65.0% from 65.2%.  So no matter how the government spins the jobs number, it sucked harder than a young lady trying to fellate Whitezilla all by herself.

    In international news, everything was down as the Euro broke through the critical $1.20 mark on its way to extinction.  Traders now see $1.18 as the next short term technical downside target for the Euro until it falls below that.  The latest fears coming out of Europe revolve around Hungary which is apparently starving for funding.  The newly elected vice president of Hungary, Lajos Kosa, channeled his inner Joe Biden late yesterday by saying that Hungary is in a Greece-like sovereign credit crisis.  In response Prime Minister Viktor Orban didn't deny the issues but did call Kosa a dicknut for speaking out of turn and promised to punish him by..READ MUCH MORE....

    Disclosure: No Positions
    Stocks: CTG, MCD, WMT, JOEZ
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