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Money McBags is the preeminent financial humorist and money maker in the world. While known for his ability to find and invest in undervalued equities, Mr. McBags is also a world class dick joke teller, an aficionado of lovely ladies, and avid reader of books without pictures in them. With... More
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When Genius Prevailed
  • 7/1/10 Midafternoon Report: Market sucks, swallows investor gains 1 comment
    Jul 1, 2010 4:26 PM | about stocks: LHCG, F, C

    It was another volatile day in the market as initial jobless claims came out and were much worse than expectations which is not surprising to anyone except for those who make those expectations.  Claims were up by 13k to 472k while analysts had guessed that they would drop to 452k which means on average they couldn't even get the 50-50 directional guess right.   And as usual, claims were part of the weekly we suck at math derby (also known as "Numbers Manipulation Thursday") as last week initial claims were 457k, so if they grew by 13k this week, that should have made claims 470k, but of course the (No) Labor Department wants to try to mitigate the fuckawfulness of the economy so they alway release a slightly better number and then revise it worse when no one is paying attention.  So last week's claims were revised up to 459k and thus we get the true mathmatical equation 459k + 13k = Holy shit we're fucked (or 472k, potato, puh-tato).  The good news is that people claiming extended benefits dropped by 376k, the bad news is that number fell because the government voted to stop paying them, so um, welcome to the double dip (and not the kind where you only get bacteria), make sure you are properly supplied with canned foods, matches, and plenty of viewing material because this could get interesting.  And to reiterate, Republicans filibustered a bill to continue extended unemployment benefits which is the first time this has ever happened with an unmeployment rate above 7.5% during a recession and it immediately cuts off 1.5MM unemployed people from cash flow they may need.  If ever Money McBags wanted to lose an election, that is exactly what he would do, fuck the people who need help in the midst of the biggest recession in history.  What wasn't reported was that Republican Senators also filibustered dignity and common sense while proposing legislation to have unemployed people serve as speed bumps on Pennsylvania Avenue to keep drivers from going to fast.

    In other US macro news, pending home sales also hit the shitter (and hit it with the force of a taco bell bean burrito slathered in extra hot sauce and Ecoli) which surprised analysts but shouldn't have surprised readers of WGP.  The pending home sales index fell to 77.6 from 110.9 because the first time home buyers tax went away which is only something that has been known for months.  The 30% drop in the index dwarfed the 12% drop analysts had guessed once again proving that past performance is no indication of future performance in regression models when we live in a fat tailed economy.  Finally the House passed a financial overhaul bill which will now go to the Senate for a vote on what should be sweeping changes but has been watered down more than Christina Hendricks in a wet t-shirt contest. 

    In addtion to macro news that was so bad not even Chris Dodd could have done something to make it worse, Goldman was further questioned by the FCIC today on their derivatives trading as relates to AIG (and as usual Money McBags would love to have the FCIC's Heather Murren question him about the exposure of his long derivative).  CFO David Vinnar...READ ALOT MORE....A BREAKDOWN OF LHCG..AND MUCH MORE

    Disclosure: No postions
    Stocks: LHCG, F, C
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  • Chiseman
    , contributor
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    Enjoy your work brother. Please keep it coming.
    1 Jul 2010, 06:35 PM Reply Like
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