Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. The market went down today faster than the Hummer Mom chaperoning a Boy Scout overnight. Given the months of bad macro data and the Fed warning about slower growth yesterday, the drop is about as surprising as learning that menstrual cramps may alter women's brains (and for their next study, National Yang-Ming University will likely prove that exposure to Hannah Hilton may alter men's pants). Today's sell off was driven by more lackluster macro news both in the US and China as well Bernanke flexing his balance sheet yesterday and stressing his determination to keep it inflated.
The most significant US macro news was that the US trade deficit jumped 18% (and not just because a mouse ran in front of it) as exports fell faster than Bar Mitzvah invitations sent to Mel Gibson. Exports dropped 1.3% while imports rose 3% causing the deficit to continue to widen like a a recent federal penitentiary inmate's colon. The trade deficit reached $49.B while economists had predicted it would shrink which proves once again that the whole field of Economics is more of a sham than Bernie Madoff's returns or gravity. The biggest issue is that the unexpected growing trade gap will cause past GDP to be revised downward with Q2 GDP now likely to be between 1% and whatever is lower than 1% which means the economic growth we have seen (and by "seen" Money McBags means "artificially generated using Excel's solver function") has been more contrived than Paul Krugman's Nobel Prize for Economics or Scientology.
Adding to the disapointing trade deficit was that despite record low rates, mortgage applications rose by only 1% as squatters have taken over empty houses and thus it is unnecessary to buy. Thanks to higher unemployment, stricter lending requirements, and the belief that rates will continue to fall in perpetuity, buyers have less urgency to buy new homes than Hugh Hefner has of becoming monogamous. That said there was one slightly positive piece of macro news today and that was that the US budget deficit narrowed to $165B in July, of course the bad news was that the US budget deficit was $165B in July. Increased corporate tax revenue helped trim the deficit a bit which may cause the end of year deficit to only be 1.499T instead of $1.5T so we can all breath a sigh of relief. That said, if the recovery has stalled (which it has), corporate tax revenues may dwindle once again and more stimulus may occur which will push the deficit even further in to the proverbial shitter.
Making matters a fuckload worse today was that international growth is now seen to be slowing down like Maxine Waters' re-election campaign funds. The biggest downer for....READ MORE....
Disclosure: Long KITD