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Money McBags is the preeminent financial humorist and money maker in the world. While known for his ability to find and invest in undervalued equities, Mr. McBags is also a world class dick joke teller, an aficionado of lovely ladies, and avid reader of books without pictures in them. With... More
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When Genius Prevailed
  • 8/24/10 Midday Report: Housing boom now bigger bust than Dolly Parton's, though alot more affordable and without the old lady smell 0 comments
    Aug 24, 2010 2:56 PM | about stocks: KIRK

    Money McBags tweeted, facebooked, and even semaphored that he will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week and thus likely would be absent from When Genius Prevailed for a few days (even God took one fucking day off), but with the market going back to hell (or at least the 666 low), Money McBags is going to make today what is called a busman's holiday (or what we here on WGP call a bustman's holiday).  That said, he will have to be brief so today will be some quick hits at what is going on, tomorrow may just be a tweet or two, and Thursday Money McBags will be back with his regular column and analysis.


    The market is once again dropping like Abe Vigoda's balls in a steam room and this time it's a result of existing home sales falling off a cliff steeper than Nanga Parbat's Rupal Flank or Jay Leno's chin.  Existing home sales were so fuckawful that not even Tiger Woods would have slept with them as they fell 27% to a 3.83MM annual rate which is the lowest since May of 1995 which was so long ago that the S&P 500 was still in the 500s, Christopher Reeve was still walking (well at least until the 27th), and muff guessing had only one answer: full bush.


    The most interesting part about the number is that of 74 economists/analysts/witch doctors surveyed by Bloomberg, the lowest estimate was for existing sales to fall to 3.93MM.  So all 74 "experts" (and Money McBags uses that term loosely, like Paris Hilton uses her vagina) were way too fucking high because for the 1MMth time here on WGP, ANALYST MODELS ARE NOT PROPERLY CALIBRATED FOR WHAT IS HAPPENING.  We are no longer in a standard bell curve gaussian economy where one can rely on the central limit theorem to make everything ok like a gentle taint tickle from Hillary Fisher.  We are in an unprecedented global clusterfuck where everything has become more intermingled than a fucking Amish family tree so all of the data from the past 70 years, which fuels analyst models, is more irrelevant than Art Laffer's views on the economy, learning how to say "double dip" in the dead language if Chitimacha, or a pedicure on Christina Hendricks (because not even Richard Simmons looks at her feet).  Money McBags is convinced that opening up excel and using the random number generator to supply data for any kind of economic forecasting model would yield better results than trying to somehow compare the last 20, 30, 40 or however many years of data to what is happening today, so all you really need to know is that things are getting shittier than Betty White's adult diaper and it's not clear what is going to turn things around for a sustainable period other than everyone finally getting paid for helping free those Nigerian princes or technological innovation.


    Anyway, the 3.83MM annual existing home sales pace was almost 1MM below the 4.65MM guessed by analysts and last month's number was also revised downwards because, well, it seems like the trendy thing to do.  There are now ~4MM homes on the market which represents over a year of inventory and doesn't include the shadow inventory of potentially twice that size as banks hold back putting foreclosures on the market and many sellers simply don't list their properties in an attempt to keep prices somewhere above free and the price of Tom DeLay's dignity.


    Internationally, there is also increase....READ MORE...MORE QUESTIONS ON KIRK....
    Stocks: KIRK
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