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Money McBags is the preeminent financial humorist and money maker in the world. While known for his ability to find and invest in undervalued equities, Mr. McBags is also a world class dick joke teller, an aficionado of lovely ladies, and avid reader of books without pictures in them. With... More
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When Genius Prevailed
  • 9/3/10 Midafternoon Report: Inconceivable! Money McBags does not think jobs report means what market thinks it means 0 comments
    Sep 3, 2010 5:05 PM | about stocks: GS, TTWO, ULTA

    Oh no you didn't.  The monthly jobs report came out today and destroyed analyst guesses of 41k private sector jobs created by coming in with a headline ~67k private sector jobs created, so break open the bubbly and call the Mrs. (or Mr. for Money McBags' female, or vagina-challenged, readers) because with a report that good, we're going out for a night on the town.  Afterall, only 14.9MM people remain unemployed (6.2MM longterm employed and and 8.7MM pre-longterm unemployed) with 2.4MM people remaining marginally attached to the workforce (and marginally attached in the same way that Ellen Degeneres' lips are ever marginally attached to a ding dong) so what is not to like about private sector job growth beating analyst guesses?  It's not like the unemployment rate went up to 9.6% (while the U6 rate hit 16.7% but who cares as those extra discouraged people are just a bunch of whiners anyway so fuck them), or maybe it did, but that is totally irrelevant.  With 67k private sector jobs added it's time to once again buy houses you can't afford, book those reservations for The French Laundry, and go back to making fun of the poor and unfortunate.  Rally on my friends, rally on, as Happy Days are truly here again.


    More than anything, Money McBags doesn't want to be the party pooper here (as these guys seem to have cornered the field on that) or the pasties in the Megan Fox kind of NSFW not quite nude scene if you will, so he won't mention that the economy didn't really gain ~67k jobs, but instead LOST ~54k jobs thanks to 117k government temporary census workers being fired and 7k permanent government employees losing their jobs (which apparently included Jan Brewer's speech writer).  And he won't mention that of the 67k jobs added, 17k were temporary jobs where overqualified workers were reduced to filing papers which will soon all be electronic anyway.  Money McBags also won't mention that of the 19k construction jobs added, 10k were just workers who had been on strike in July going back to their old jobs (yep, it's in the data) after no doubt striking due to being overworked as a result of all of the new construction going up (and yes that was sarcasm).


    Most of all though, Money McBags won't mention the 115k jobs added by the Birth/Death model which is likely more fictitious than God (at least according to Stephen Hawking, though to be honest, if Money McBags had spent the last 30 years in a wheelchair he wouldn't believe in God either, that said, if there were no God, how would one explain this?).  Anyway, for those of you who remain unfamiliar with the B(L)S' Birth/Death model (and as always the "L" in BLS is in parentheses because it is silent), it is a bigger black box than that of Montana Fishburne and is supposed to estimate new businesses opened or closed not captured by the B(L)S survey.  It does this through the use of a "probability-based sample design and estimator" (their words, not Money McBags'), fortune cookies, and whatever B(L)S Commissioner Keith Hall tells his analysts to manually input.  While the 115k is not supposed to be additive to the numbers, it is somehow folded in to the manipulated 67k new jobs, like a chicken leg folds in to one of Kirstie Alley's fat rolls.  But again, Money McBags doesn't want to mention any of that and instead would prefer to think about the 67k new jobs added (or 40k when one subtracts out the 17k temporary jobs and the 10k construction workers who merely ended their strike) which puts the economy at a run rate of only ~100 more months like this (not including the 121k government jobs lost) until we can return to the outdated perception of a normal unemployment rate, and really, what's a mere ~8-9 years among friends?


    For those of you keeping score at home...READ MORE ON JOBS AND THE MARKET....

    Disclosure: No Positions
    Stocks: GS, TTWO, ULTA
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