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Money McBags is the preeminent financial humorist and money maker in the world. While known for his ability to find and invest in undervalued equities, Mr. McBags is also a world class dick joke teller, an aficionado of lovely ladies, and avid reader of books without pictures in them. With... More
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When Genius Prevailed
  • 9/9/10 Midevening Report: Government massages new claims for unemployment data and gives the market a happy ending 0 comments
    Sep 9, 2010 6:00 PM | about stocks: KITD, AAPL, MCD

    The market was up again today as it continues to rejoice that there are only "widespread signs of deceleration" and not whatever is worse than widespread, like "doublewidespread" or "assawful."  The big macro news was that new claims for unemployment were out and they demolished analyst guesses of 470k by coming in at a petite 451k.  So hoo-fucking-ray that only 450k-ish more people lost their jobs (that is until it is revised upwards next week in the continued "hold the shock and hope for no awe" strategy that Money McBags has been talking about here for months and on which zerohedge finally picked up.  And of course right on schedule, last week's number was revised up from 472k to 478k, so party on).


    But the greatest part about the spanktacular jobs number of this week was that 9 STATES DIDN'T EVEN REPORT RESULTS according to Bloomberg, though that information is not in the actual (No) Labor Department release, because why would the government want everyone to know the numbers are more fictitious than AIG's financial statements or Chelsea Handler's age (if that is what 35 looks like, then Betty White must be going on 50)?  You see, it was Labor Day and even government lackeys get to take a day off every now and then to soak their withered fingers and catch up on episodes of the Jerry Springer Show after working so hard from 9 to 5 (not including the hour for lunch) for five days a week and as a result, 9 states simply gave the (No) Labor Department the Heisman (though not Reggie Bush's, because he may already have given it back).


    According to Bloomberg, California and Virginia came up with their own numbers while the government estimated the numbers of the other 7 states who were no doubt too busy putting all of their white clothes in storage to even come up with an out of their asses guess (and if their asses look like this, guess away).  So look, it is possible that in the week when ~20% of the states didn't report numbers (though well over 20% population-wise thanks to California with their sunny beaches, warm climate, and population of bunnies) that numbers would fall by 28k to below even the lowest of analyst guesses (which was 460k), it is possible that the government was able to accurately guess at actual new claims numbers for states that didn't report (since the government is known for their tip top and cutting edge analysis), and it is also possible that monkeys are currently flying out of Money McBags ass as he hums a Johnny Cash tune and dances the kazachok, because really, after seeing the success of Lady Gaga, anything is truly possible.  That said, any or all of the above are unlikelier than Mike Tyson ever smoking weed with Tupac (because had that happened, the world may have ended out of awesomeness) so Money McBags is willing to bet a share of NTZ (which is falling ever closer to $0) that next week the numbers are revised a fuckload upwards and yet the market won't care.  Manipulate on my friends, manipulate on.  If only the government could convince all 50 states to not report their new claims for unemployment numbers next week and thus guess at the numbers themselves, the recession would be over much sooner.  Perhaps that is a strategy the administration should roll out next month when the non-stimulus fails to stimulate.


    In other macro news, the US trade deficit dropped by 14% which was the most in almost 1.5 years and driven by both an increase in exports and a decrease in imports thanks to...READ MUCH MORE...

    Disclosure: Long AAPL, Long MCD, Long KITD
    Stocks: KITD, AAPL, MCD
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