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Money McBags is the preeminent financial humorist and money maker in the world. While known for his ability to find and invest in undervalued equities, Mr. McBags is also a world class dick joke teller, an aficionado of lovely ladies, and avid reader of books without pictures in them. With... More
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When Genius Prevailed
  • 9/16/10 Midevening Report: Americans flash foodstamps in Poverty Gone Wild! 0 comments
    Sep 16, 2010 6:10 PM | about stocks: F, FDX, KIRK, PIR

    The market was remarkably flat today despite a flurry of economic news including new claims for unemployment, the producer price index, census data on poverty, and Craigslist officially shutting down its section for sex ads (thereby forcing wealthy scumbags to seek other arrangements).  The most important, and frankly confusing, of the economic reports was the (No) Labor Department's new claims for unemployment figures which showed a decline from last week to 450k and an upward increase of last week's 451k to only 453k.  Money McBags was willing to bet two shares of NTZ that the upward revision would be to at least 470k so it's a good thing he didn't make that bet because then he would have been out ~$7 (though as NTZ is going to $0, he'll eventually be out that money anyway).


    As we all learned here last week, Karissa Shannon is hot (even with her so early 2000s tramp stamp).  But as we also learned last week, the government estimated last week's new claims for unemployment number for 10 of the 50 states (not including the states of confusion, despair, or utter bliss) when those states didn't send in their numbers due to the Labor Day holiday.  Since government number crunchers are likely as good at realistically estimating data as economists, sell side analysts, and lobotomized dik-diks (which is very very badly), Money McBags was certain their estimates would have been further off than General Custer's estimate of the number of Native Americans at Little Big Horn or Time Warner's estimates as to the value of AOL.  So new claims coming in at only 450k this week (though they will be revised upwards next week) and last week's number being revised up only 2k is shocking, and Money McBags can't believe it didn't rally the market.  Afterall, the 450k was 9k below analyst guesses and if one doesn't care about absolute numbers, it was a slight positive.


    In other macro news, PPI was up slightly more than forecast thanks to an unusual spike in the demand for water sports videos (that pun may take a second or two) as producer prices rose .4%.  The rise is well below inflationary targets and when one strips out food and energy costs (because why include things which people actually buy?), core PPI was only .1% vs. .3% analyst guesses.  Some economists worry that the uptick being so small could signal deflationary pressures starting to mount while other economists believe that the small uptick signals deflation will be averted, so as always, economics proves to be .0001% science and 99.9999% making shit up.  In the final bit of macro news, the Philly Fed announced that manufacturing in the region contracted, likely the result of rabid Eagles fans burning down manufacturing facilities after Kevin Kolb threw his first incomplete pass.  The Philly Fed's index came in at -.7 while analysts had expected it to come in at 2, but to be fair, those were economists making the guesses so the fact that they could even guess a non-imaginary number (like boogerteen) should be applauded.


    One more interesting note on the current state of the US Economy is that according to the census bureau, the poverty rate rose last year to 14.3% which is the highest since 1994 and the second statistically significant (gaussian bell curve be damned) rise in the rate in 5 years.  And that number may even be understated as according to the Census bureau the weighted average poverty threshold, to be known from here on out as the "Americans Need Aid Line," or more familiarly, ANAL, was actually lower in 2009 than in 2008...READ MORE....

    Disclosure: No Positions
    Stocks: F, FDX, KIRK, PIR
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