Dave Kranzler's  Instablog

Dave Kranzler
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I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for a large bank. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently I co-manage a precious metals and mining stock... More
My company:
Golden Returns Capital
My blog:
Investment Research Dynamics
  • Another Analyst Explains Why Housing Is In Trouble 0 comments
    Aug 7, 2014 12:58 PM | about stocks: DHI, KBH, RYL, TOL, LEN, BZH

    This guy explains why the decline in foreclosures and distressed sales is a big negative for the housing market. While counter-intuitive, his explanation is clear - crystal clear:

    In summary, the halting of foreclosures and short sales due to can-kicking - and to a larger extent exotic mortgage mods - has caused serious structural damage to the demand equation of the macro housing market, which amazingly hasn't not dawned on many yet.

    Here's the full article link: Headwind For Housing

    My first homebuilder short-sell is performing well so far - it has at least $10 of easy downside in it from here, with patience. This stock traded below $5 in the 1990′s and I expect it go below $5 eventually once again: Homebuilder Stock Short-Sell Idea

    As the overall stock market begins to price in reality and sell-off quickly, it will exert particularly heavy downside force on the homebuilder stocks.

    Disclosure: The author is short DHI, KBH, RYL.

    Stocks: DHI, KBH, RYL, TOL, LEN, BZH
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