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Dave Kranzler
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I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for a large bank. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently I co-manage a precious metals and mining stock... More
My company:
Golden Returns Capital
My blog:
Investment Research Dynamics
  • Housing is Going Back Into a Free Fall 0 comments
    Mar 24, 2010 11:19 AM
    Interesting How Bloomberg Spins the Mortgage Finance Weekly Data...
    [Housing news update:  New home sales tank 2.2% in February "to an annual pace of 308,000, seasonally adjusted, which is the lowest rate since the government began tracking the data in 1963" News link.  This was well below consensus estimate expectations]

    The Mortgage Bankers Assoc. released its weekly mortgage finance index - which shows purchase and refinance applications (note: not approved mortgages, just applications).  For the latest week in March, the overall loan application volumn decreased 4.2% from a week earlier.

    Bloomberg highlights just the purhase index component on its website, which rose 2.7% from a week earlier "making for a third rise in four weeks that points to improvement for home sales including March data" Link.

    Let's look at the crucial information the Bloomberg neglected to report.  From the MBAA news release MBAA Link:  The refinance index was down 7.1% from a week earlier, the purchase index was down 15% from the same week last year

    Anyone see any indication of housing market "improvement" in those numbers?  Hint:  look at yesterday's existing home sales numbers, which were horrible and which I posted on below.  As the MBAA often explains, typically someone applying for a mortgage will file more than 1 application, in order to cut the risk of denial.  What this does is skew the numbers to the high side, so the actual purchase activity is lower than the applications number reflects.  Furthermore, the index measures applications, not approvals.  Real purchase activity is lower than than the applications index reported would indicate.

    Clearly the media is doing whatever it can to shmear lipstick on the dying pig of an economy.  The system and the media's lack of truth in reporting becomes more Orwellian by the day...

    Disclosure: no positions
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