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The Calm Before The Next Vringo Storm...

|Includes:FORM Holdings Corp. (FH)

Considering the confusion and theories lighting up MB's everywhere as an unknown tomorrow draws near, it seemed like this may be a good opportunity to encourage everyone to (1) stay grounded, (2) minimize knee-jerk reactions, (3) objectively distinguish between what is POSSIBLE vs what is PROBABLE, (4) be willing to reconsider your position should the merits of new information arise, and most importantly, (5) have a plan in place for how you intend to react if the pps tomorrow goes up a lot vs going up just a little vs dropping a little vs dropping a lot.

In hopping back and forth between several MB's, it is unfortunately apparent that many people are frozen in confusion as volatility swirls around them and are left at the end of the day with a "WTF" moment as they kick themselves with "I wish I did this..." or "I should have done that..." thoughts. From what I have gathered, most posters on most MB's seem to be genuinely good people and regardless of whether someone is short or long, my hope is simply that you arm yourself with as much knowledge as possible in order to arrive at a well-informed decision as to your next course of action.

A big part of obtaining knowledge is to understand what it means to view everything you read and hear with "professional skepticism". What this means is to separate facts from assertions and opinions. Facts can be easily verified. Someone stating assertions or opinions is a murkier area.

With so much $$$ on the line, it would behoove all of us to spend a bit of time trying to independently corroborate what others are saying. If I invest $$$ based solely or primarily upon the glowing recommendations of someone I don't know and win, then in all honesty I just got lucky; but if I lose, then that is a "me" problem and I need not look elsewhere to cast aspersions.

Look, I appreciate the viewpoints of those we laymen view as "knowledgeable experts" such as Steve K, James A, Alan B, Dan R, and Modernist, and anyone else who is willing to share thoughts and experiences with me. I may not agree with the opinions, assessments, or conclusions drawn by any of these columnists for any particular article, but to paraphrase Voltaire: "I may not agree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

And let's face it - it is likely that 99.9999% of us retail investors don't know Steve, James, et al personally and, likewise, they don't know us from Adam and probably wouldn't care to outside of the pleasantries of these MB's. In addition, although some posters and columnists may have no agenda other then to try to inform others and disseminate information, the problem is that we don't know who they are and as such we would be naive to not recognize the potential existence of personal agendas with ANY poster/columnist. Keep in mind, "personal agendas" does not mean something nefarious is afoot -- it simply means that everyone's investment/trading objectives are different and as such their viewpoints may not necessarily be appropriate to take as gospel and to mimic. Take Modernist for example. I am long on VRNG and so I find that I do not share his views on several issues; however, his articles and comments are the ones that I most value for no reason other than that they are provocative and they make me think. Period. This mental exercise allows me to the opportunity to either adjust my views based on new info or it reinforces my views if I find that the info presented doesn't pass muster with other known facts. Same with Alan B -- he is brutally to the point and makes no qualm about not wasting time with fluff and window dressing to try to make his comments "nice and cuddly". Point being here is that information is knowledge and knowledge is power, and so if someone wants to share info, I'm all for absorbing all I can get like a sponge -- BUT it is on me to have the discipline to evaluate the info objectively, sift thru it, and find that 1% that may be valuable nuggets to store away for future use.

Anyways, my intent here is not to sound "preachy" but I just sense a heightened sense of euphoria that has grown since Mikehd25 shared his findings on the potential miscalculation of damages (yes, it has spread like wildfire -- and I am certain that VRNG and their attorneys picked up on this immediately upon hearing the verdict being read but recognized that shouting bloody murder would accomplish nothing and that proper procedures must now be navigated in order to raise the issue with the court -- but from numerous MB's Mikehd25's was the first I observed to note this and so it important to give credit where credit is due) and this euphoria reminds me of the moments before the verdict was announced, and I just don't want to see the mass inconsolable desolation again IF this miscalculation issue ends up not resulting in what we all hope for. Remember, there is what we feel is "right" and "just" and "equitable"... ...and then there is the law. Like it or not, they are rarely in-sync with each other and so in spite of all logic and noble protestations, there is the very distinct possibility that any number of outcomes may result -- some of which we may not like.

Remember, as sure of a thing that many longs thought this litigation would be, it is still a binary event and as such truly is nothing more than a coin flip where an "all or nothing" outcome is oftentimes the only two results. There is a reason the stocks of these types of companies are not "blue chip" -- if there was an equity equivalent to a "junk bond" from a risk/reward perspective, these types of stocks would be it, so recognize it for what it is and consider carefully if you really want to be investing in it (trading is a different matter, of course), and if so, how much you can really afford to potentially lose.

So please, before tomorrow unfolds, make sure you have contingency plans in place so that you can react in a timely manner regardless of how the fickle winds of the market blows.

Disclosure: I am long VRNG.

Stocks: FH