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  • Will History Repeat For Apple? Turning The Calendar Back A Year. 2 comments
    Nov 3, 2012 12:45 AM | about stocks: AAPL

    It has only been 6 weeks since Apple started this current correction from $705/share to $576/share. It has not been a great time to be long AAPL.

    This isn't the first AAPL correction, so I thought it might be educational to compare the current situation to Q4 FY2011 post earnings:

    • Apple met guidance for Q4 FY2011, but missed on consensus EPS and Revenue. (AAPL missed only on EPS in Q4 FY2012)
    • Apple's forward guidance for Q1 FY2012 ($9.30 and $37B ) was a disappointment. (Ditto.)
    • Apple stock price declined 14% from $422 to $363 from 10/14/2011 to 11/25/2011. (18% lower since 9/21/2012.)
    • Apple's P/E declined from 15 to 13. (From 16 P/E to 13 P/E)
    • 4 million iPhone4S phones were sold over a 3 day period (5 million iPhone5 phones over the first weekend.)
    • New iPhone4S was panned for Battery-gate and no external design changes. (New iPhone5 w/Map-gate and Scuff-gate.)
    • The Kindle Fire would possibly impact iPad market share. (Add Nexus 7, 10 and Microsoft Surface to the party.)
    • iPad2 had just been released, and it's success was not certain. (iPad Mini and iPad 4 released with minimal 'frenzy')
    • Many articles have been published predicting the certain decline of high growth for Apple due to the Law of Large Numbers, etc. (This has occurred every year since 2008, and these articles will eventually be accurate.)

    This begs the question:

    Will the launch of iPhone5, iPad 4 and iPad Mini fuel a Q1 FY2013 Revenue and Earnings blowout?

    OR

    Will the predictions of low growth finally come to pass?

    I'm betting that history repeats.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Stocks: AAPL
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Comments (2)
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  • chrigel
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Great comparison. I bet you are right and aapl will move higher again by year end. No worries! Great buy right now.
    3 Nov 2012, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • GORDONPO
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    More information:

     

    It might feel like this is an abnormally deep and long sell-off for AAPL, but it’s not.

     

    The Apple sell-off three months ago lasted 18 days as the stock dropped 7.7%.
    The sell-off five months ago lasted 38 days as the stock dropped 19%.
    The sell-off one year ago lasted 31 days as the stock dropped 14.8%.
    If you take the average of those three sell-offs you end up with a 29 day sell-off and a stock drop of 13.8%.
    Current sell-off: As at Friday was Day 41 of a 18.3% sell-off

     

    This is simply AAPL, a fundamentally sound company, being APPL.
    3 Nov 2012, 06:43 AM Reply Like
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