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  • IPad: 25 Million Activations In December? 11 comments
    Jan 3, 2013 8:59 PM | about stocks: AAPL

    The Flurry Analytics report on Android and IOS activations hasn't gotten much press. It was mentioned in Market Currents on December 29th, but looking closer may have unearthed some nuggets for AAPL investors.

    According to Flurry: 17.4 million total devices were activated on Dec 25, 2012. Also, from Dec 1 to Dec 20, the average number of devices activated was 4 million per day. Is it too aggressive to assume 4 million per day for the other 10 days in December? If so, approximately 137.4 million devices were activated in December.

    (click to enlarge)

    Now it gets interesting...

    For the 30 normal days, Flurry says smartphone activations were 4:1 versus the tablets. On Chrismas, 51% of the activations were tablets!

    (click to enlarge)

    This would imply that 8.9 million tablets were activated on Christmas Day, and 24 million tablets were activated on the other days. That would be 32.9 million tablets in the month of December.

    John Gruber retweeted this link from Andy Baio about first tweets on Christmas Day.

    (click to enlarge)

    If these numbers are correct, 78.5% of the tablets activated were iPads. So, that would be 25.8 Million iPads activated in December.

    There could be many devices sold in October and November which were activated in December, but since many analysts have predicted 25 million units for the entire quarter, this is encouraging data.

    blog.flurry.com/bid/92719/Christmas-2012...-Records

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

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Comments (11)
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  • cfvaughnii
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some new data from Flurry : http://bit.ly/VL68HH

     

    Basically, 50 Million new devices from Dec 25-31. This pushes the total devices to 146 million.
    Dec 1-24 => 24 days *4 million / day = 96 million devices * 20% =19.2M tablets
    Dec 25 => 17.4 Million devices * 51% tablets / device = 8.9M tablets
    Dec 26-31 => 32.6 million devices * 20% tablets / device = 6.5M tablets
    December => 33.6M tablets * 78.5% iPad / tablets = 26.4M iPads activated

     

    Horace Dediu feels the twitter data may be too U.S.-centric so we need a better international proxy for the 78% iPad tablet share.
    5 Jan 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • ER_ATL
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Great analysis... The 4M/day in December (excluding Dec 25th) bothers me. I would expect that 4M/day would slow because they were wrapped and under the tree, then they were all turned on on Dec 25th.
    6 Jan 2013, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • cfvaughnii
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The data was from Dec 1-20. Eliminating the 4 days doesn't push the activation number much lower.

     

    Dec 1-20 => 20 days * 4 million / day = 80 million devices * 20% =16M tablets
    Dec 21-24 => 4 days * 2 million / day = 8 million devices * 20% =1.6M tablets
    Dec 25 => 17.4 Million devices * 51% tablets / device = 8.9M tablets
    Dec 26-31 => 32.6 million devices * 20% tablets / device = 6.5M tablets
    December => 33M tablets * 78.5% iPad / tablets = 25.9M iPads activated
    6 Jan 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • asadmu
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. But isn't Flurry data just for the US? So the numbers are just for the US, not for the world, which would imply additional sales globally?
    5 Jan 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • cfvaughnii
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » According to their website, it is worldwide data:

     

    http://bit.ly/RABMKJ.

     

    There is a country breakdown in the article.
    6 Jan 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • asadmu
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Additionally, all this is just for December so additional sales in other months? If you can clarify that would be great pls.

     

    1) If flurry data is just for US
    2) Obviously just for Dec
    5 Jan 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • cfvaughnii
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It isn't sales, it is activations. Those could carry-over from October and November, so it is difficult to draw a precise conclusion on actual sales.
    6 Jan 2013, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • chrisfr
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Flurry's 78.5% is also backed up by a recent Chitika report that puts iPad usage at 78.86%: http://bit.ly/VHcYhX.
    6 Jan 2013, 04:30 AM Reply Like
  • cfvaughnii
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Chitka data is only US and Canada. We need some worldwide numbers on tablets.
    6 Jan 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Bradmol
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Regardless if it is just USA and Canada numbers, they are pretty impressive. We have to assume some bough in November were not activated until Xmas day. But we also have to assume, that some bought in December were activated earlier and after Xmas.
    Other sales in November and October have to also indicate that the bulk were activated earlier as well.

     

    I guessing at least 15 to 18 million sales and activations for the 3 months. Roughly double what we saw activated Xmas day. That's conservative.

     

    But then we have another 98 countries sales to consider. Could that number help to double USA and Canada sales? I think so. Roughly 35 million in total.
    That's a roughly 48% increase over last year holiday quarter.

     

    Considering everyone is predicting doom and gloom for sales, this report is pretty optimistic.
    21 Jan 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • cfvaughnii
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, we finally get to see the actual results today. We'll get to see how accurate the Flurry data was, and be able to apply a new metric in the future.
    23 Jan 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
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