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Old Trader is a 59 year old private investor, managing a retirement portfolio constructed to a) generate a high current yield, b) preserve capital, and c) increase capital. His methodology involves taking a "top down" macro view to identify favorable trends, and then engage in... More
  • Overnight, 6-14/15 5 comments
    Jun 15, 2009 01:50 AM

    I'm watching the dollar rise, gold and oil fall, and the futures edge down, as the Asian markets fall, as well. It all makes me wonder about geopolitics. North Korea is still kicking up a fuss, much like a petulant child throws a tantrum, but I can't help but wonder if more attention is being focused on the outcome of the Iranian elections.

    No doubt it hurts North Korea's sense of self-esteem, but until they unleash an artillery barrage across the DMZ, followed by waves of armor and infantry; perhaps accompanied by some short range rockets, they're not going to get the world's attention they crave, and feel they deserve.

    On the other hand, if the unrest in Iran, fueled by charges of a rigged election, continues to grow, that will have a much more immediate impact on global stability, and by extension, global markets. The only problem with that thesis, is that oil SHOULD be spiking higher. Of course, there're hours until the US markets open, so nothing's hardly writ in stone.

     

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This post has 5 comments:

  •  
    Very interesting - the discontinuity between equity futures and the price of oil. Which implies that there must be some other concern driving down equity futures, which is not Iran. Any thoughts on what it could be?
    Jun 15 02:05 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Really like your posts. FYI -- I just left this stocktalk:
    Who I'm reading: Old Trader. Elegant writing, smart ideas. tinyurl.com/mhync7
    Jun 15 02:20 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hedged,

    Thanks for the kind words. To be perfectly honest, I'm more than a bit befuddled by the disconnect. I'm truly surprised that the Iranian situation seems to have had little, if any impact on oil.
    Jun 15 08:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Totally agree. The election recount that was just announced is a sign that the regime isn't able to brush off the protests. Which means the disturbances are serious, and should lead to a rise in the price of oil.
    Jun 16 07:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Even at the current oil prices, consumers will be pinched while the unemployment is on the rise.

    The housing foreclosure have been halted in California for the at least 8 month or more. Many people cannot pay their mortgages, yet the banks are not willing to work with them either. Therefore, people have stopped paying mortgages and for now living, free of mortgage. This is the only positive effect on the economy not crashing further. Therefore, the banks and Financials are toast for few years to come.

    I wonder how long the banks can stay quiet and not take any action?

    The situation in Iran can only get worst. The people in Iran have been under dictatorship of the Islamic Republic of the Mullah’s for the last thirty years. They have found an excuse to rise up and to become fearless. What they really want is to break free from 30% inflation and over 45% unemployment in the country. The mullah’s have rapped and stolen the national wealth of Iran and spending the money in developing terrorism around the world (such as Hezbollah and jihad). The main problem is the lack of leadership in Iran. Moussavi is no different than AhmadiNejad.
    These crises may come to end by means of Dictatorship in a month or this is the beginning of a big change in Iran and the entire middle east. Considering what is happening in the neighboring countries (Iraq, Pakistan and Afganistan) and now Iran, the defense companies and Gold are the only safe bets.

    I wonder what the World is like by summer 2012!
    Jun 17 06:36 PM | Link | Reply
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