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  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) Shares Will Be Volatile After The Call 0 comments
    Nov 19, 2012 2:08 PM | about stocks: URBN

    Shares of the urban outfitter reached 52 weeks highs year to date and then traded off as market-wide volatility hit the tape in the recent weeks.

    Overall the street has been bullish on the URBN story, expecting it to report earnings up 24.2% year over year.

    The larger majority of analysts still rate the retailer as a buy but volatility may loom as the effects of Sandy have not been fully realized yet.

    Foot traffic is up slightly year over but average purchase order remains unseen. Due to low volume of research reported on this name and rare management appearances, volatility will be moderate to high as shares will likely gap up or down between 1 to 10% depending on magnitude of the miss / beat.

    Institutional Insider earnings predictions polls with the top 20 actively managed funds have pegged this stock as a buy in our database. We note that the majority of the PMs of these funds are mostly committed to the story to at least through the first half of Q4 as they closely monitor holiday sales.

    Although either earnings or revenue could be a disappointment, we expect management to guide positively, which could prop the share price up.

    Scheduled to report Q3 earnings on 19-Nov after the close.

      • FactSet:
        • Revenue $693.1M
        • EPS $0.41
      • Institutional Insider (17-19 estimates):
        • Q3
          • Comps +4.7%
          • Gross margin 37.8%
          • SG&A 24.2%
          • Operating margin 13.6%
        • Q4
          • Comps +3.7%
          • Gross margin 36.6%
          • SG&A 22.3%
          • Operating margin 14.4%
    Themes: earnings prediction Stocks: URBN
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