Magnitude: MInimal to Moderate movements
Outlook Prediction: Maturity and strength in new products will be trend for management
2013 will be a year of great change. It will be a year of social change, economic unrest, and new political shifts. For the two technology giants Google and Apple, it will be a defining year of innovation and risk.
Our week-long annual technology survey of industry experts from top technology companies in Silicon Valley and the greater New York tri-state area has revealed a surprising shift in sentiment. Compared with our poll last year, a higher percentage of those surveyed, believe Apple will miss fiscal year analyst expectations, with at least one dud in its product life cycle. While nearly 100% of those surveyed believe Google will have an edge in both electronics and soft sales.
The findings from the report indicate a lack of direction from the famed iPod makers and a strengthening renaissance in innovation from Google. Our experts cite obviously the mini iPad as outdated, clunky and unnecessary, while newest innovations from Google have shined.
Most experts agree that a new market will be required for Apple to continue its growth story into 2013 and 2014. Apple had succeeded in creating "new markets" with the releases of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad under the helm of Steve Jobs. However, with Tim Cook in Steve's shoes, it has been a difficult read on the direction of what the future holds.
Apple has hardware style appeal but has been criticized in the latest poll for its lack of quality soft-design. Siri for example, has been heavily marketed by Apple as if it could literally be a replacement for a personal assistant. Upon further investigation however, our technology analyst believes it is nothing more than decade old technology that has been improved slightly, and packaged differently (ie. Listen for a command and perform a function).
Google on the other hand, has the tools (data) to make products that affect lives in a more direct manner according to responses from our latest survey. The "Google Now" product, a direct competitor to Siri, according to our analysts, is what Siri strives to be, but cannot, because it does not have the data. Google is able to utilize its massive wealth of information collected from everybody in the world, and yourself, to fine tune the way you go about life. If you use any of Google's products (Gmail, Search, Plus, Android, Chrome), then it can use the information it collects to do tasks pre-emptively, without your control. In other words, there is no need to "talk" to "Google Now" like you do with Siri. It talks to you.
To give an example, in the famed Samuel L. Jackson Siri commercial, Mr. Jackson asks Siri to find a store that sells organic mushrooms for his risotto. Google Now, instead, would know that its 6pm, know that you made the risotto last week, and would tell you when to leave to go to the store to avoid the traffic jam, and the ingredients you need, without any input from you at all.
According to our poll, barring major announcements, Apple has the largest downside long-term risk and Google has the higher probability of outperforming the market. Our poll indicates a general consensus of 52.19B in revenue and and 46.92 EPS for fy2013 for Google, with analyst consensus generally coming in at the high 51B numbers and mid-46 for EPS. Those same respondents indicated that they believe revenue to fall in at 218.1B in revenue and 57.28 in EPS for Apple against a consensus of 219.81B and 57.58.