Ross Aldridge Las Vegas Nevada and RAC Consultants have adjusted its position on the 10% 2014 increase for the Stock Markets!
Is the world about to experience another Black Swan, a seemingly improbable or unpredictable turn of events with deeply negative consequences for financial markets and the economy?
Armed gunmen seize two airports in Crimea 'an armed invasion, occupation,' Ukraine says
Russia denies seizing military airport near Black Sea base and civilian airport at Simferopol, raising question 'Who are the gunmen?' Read the latest on Ukraine
- S&P expects Ukraine debt default if political crisis that s left more than 70 dead isn t resolved quickly
- This is the ultra-luxurious 'sanatorium' where Ukraine's president has reportedly taken refuge
At this stage, Western markets are fairly sanguine about the long-term impact of Ukraine's civil conflict.
Ukraine is a relatively small economy that remains profoundly more integrated with Russia than Europe. Indeed, Russia has always regarded Ukraine not just as a vassal state, but essentially as part of the same country.
If it were to vanish from the face of the earth tomorrow, there would undoubtedly be consequences for Russia, but the direct impact on Western economies would be marginal to non-existent.
Yet it is in the nature of Black Swans that they spring from the seemingly insignificant. Europe's attempts to woo Ukraine have combined with the defensiveness of Vladimir Putin's Russia to give the situation a potentially highly explosive dynamic. We don't know how Mr Putin is going to react.
This is even more the case for events outside the U.S. For all the hoopla surrounding the Arab Spring, and its eventual descent into renewed Middle Eastern chaos, it has had zero impact on Western financial markets.
For events that truly poleaxes markets, you have to look to Black Swans in major economies - to the near collapse of America's banking system, the virtual implosion of Europe's ridiculous experiment in monetary union and so on. Such events are not sparked by conflicts in faraway places, but are nearly always self-inflicted.
That was yesterday but as Ross Aldridge Las Vegas Nevada reviews the March 1, 2014 update:
- UN calls emergency meeting on Ukraine crisis
- Russian military use approved to 'normalize socio-political situation'
- Ukraine's new PM demands that Moscow pull back its troops
- Pro-Russia demonstrations break out in Ukrainian cities
- Canadians advised to leave Crimea 'while it is safe to do so'
The UN Security Council will hold an urgent meeting on the crisis in Ukraine on Saturday after Russia announced plans to send armed forces into the autonomous Crimea region of the former Soviet republic, council delegations said.
A diplomat from Luxembourg, president of the 15-nation council this month, said the meeting would take place at 2:00 p.m. ET and was being convened at the request of Britain.
The council met on Friday to discuss the crisis in Ukraine's Crimea region but took no formal action, as expected.
At Friday's session, Ukraine accused Russia of illegal military incursions onto Ukrainian territory, while U.S. and European delegations warned Moscow to withdraw any new military forces deployed in neighbouring Ukraine. Russia, however, said any military movements by Russian forces there were in compliance with its agreement with Kyiv on maintaining its naval base there.
Russia is a veto-wielding permanent member of the Security Council and, therefore, able to block any actions proposed by its members.
Russian military in Ukraine
On Saturday, Russia's parliament granted President Vladimir Putin permission to use the country's military in Ukraine and also recommended Saturday that Moscow's ambassador be recalled from Washington over comments made by U.S. President Barack Obama.
The unanimous vote in an emergency session formalized what Ukrainian officials described as an invasion of Russian troops in the strategic region of Crimea. With pro-Russian protests breaking out in other parts of Ukraine, Moscow now could send its military elsewhere in Ukraine.
"I'm submitting a request for using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine pending the normalization of the socio-political situation in that country," Putin said before the vote.
Putin earlier said the move is needed to protect ethnic Russians and the personnel of a Russian military base in Ukraine's strategic region of Crimea.
He sent the request to the Russian legislature's upper house, which had to approve the motion under the constitution.
It was the latest escalation following the ouster of Ukraine's pro-Russian president last week by a protest movement aimed at turning Ukraine toward the European Union and away from Russia.
Unofficially, thousands of Russian troops and military vehicles have been taking up positions in Crimea in recent days.
Armed men described as Russian troops took control of key airports and a communications centre in Crimea on Friday.
Ukraine's population is divided in loyalties between Russia and Europe, with much of western Ukraine advocating closer ties with the European Union while eastern and southern regions look to Russia for support. Crimea is mainly Russian-speaking.
Crimea PM takes control of security forces
Crimea's prime minister, Sergei Aksyonov, declared that the armed forces, the police, the national security service and border guards in the region will answer only to his orders.
Russian troops block access to the Ukrainian coast guard base in Balaklava, a small coastal town near Sevastopol. The poster reads: "A country's border is sacred and inviolable." (Susan Ormiston/CBC)
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk opened a cabinet meeting in the capital, Kyiv, by calling on Russia not to provoke discord in Crimea, a peninsula on the Black Sea.
"We call on the government and authorities of Russia to recall their forces, and to return them to their stations," Yatsenyuk was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. "Russian partners, stop provoking civil and military resistance in Ukraine."
While Yatsenyuk demanded that Moscow stop its "provocative actions," he added his country is refusing to respond with force.
Russian reinforcements sent 'without warning'
Defence Minister Igor Tenyukh on Saturday told a cabinet meeting that Russia began sending reinforcements on Friday "without warning or Ukraine's permission."
Tenyukh said 6,000 Russian troops have been sent to the peninsula, in violation of the law. He added Russia has about 80 military vehicles stationed in various areas of Crimea.
Russia is supposed to notify Ukraine of any troop movements outside the Black Sea Fleet naval base it maintains in Sevastopol under a lease agreement with Ukraine.
CBC correspondent Susan Ormiston is in Ukraine. Follow her reports on CBC News Network during the day and each night on CBC's The National. You can follow her on Twitter @Ormistononline
Russian forces on Saturday attempted to penetrate a marine battalion in the Crimean city of Feodosiya, Tenyukh said.
The apparent troop mobilization is the latest escalation following the ouster of Ukraine's pro-Russian president last week by a protest movement aimed at turning Ukraine toward the European Union and away from Russian influence.
CBC News correspondent Susan Ormiston is in Sevastopol, on the southern edge of Crimea, not far from where Russia has operated a Black Sea naval base for decades.
"We're now seeing Russian troops in other parts of Crimea, armoured personnel carriers, as well as attack helicopters," Ormiston said.
She reported seeing a stationary convoy of 11 military transport vehicles, as well as five armoured vehicles blocking the access road to the Ukrainian coast guard base in Balaklava, a small coastal town near Sevastopol.
Mood in Crimea becoming 'more hostile'
"The mood has also changed here. It's more hostile, more pro-Russian. We have been stopped several times and people are saying that Crimea is Russia and that, as one man puts it, Ukraine is "the bandit."
Pro-Russian demonstrations have broken out in major cities in eastern and southern Ukraine - in cities that included Kharkhiv, Donetsk and Odessa.
The Canadian government's Twitter page for international travel issued anew advisory on Saturday.
"If you are presently in Crimea, you should consider leaving while it is safe to do so," it said.
In another development, the newly installed leader of Ukraine's Crimea region declared himself in charge of local military and law enforcement on Saturday.
Sergei Aksyonov said the armed forces, the police, the national security service and border guards in the region will answer only to his orders.
Soldiers with their faces covered and wearing no insignia patrol the Crimean airport in Ukraine. (Susan Ormiston/CBC)
British Foreign Secretary William Hague says he has been in contact with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Hague says he called for a de-escalation of military involvement in Crimea and respect for Ukrainian sovereignty.
On Friday, the White House told the U.K.'s Guardian newspaper that said U.S. officials are consulting with European leaders on the possibility of pulling out of the G8 summit in Russia this June.
Back in Moscow, the speaker of the upper house of parliament, Valentina Matviyenko, said Saturday that Russia could deploy additional troops to Crimea to help protect the local population from the new Ukrainian authorities.
Map: A divided Ukraine
European loyalties run highest in the Ukrainian-speaking west of the country, while the eastern half generally falls more into the Russian orbit.Hover over the red and blue dots to learn more about specific flashpoints in the conflict.
In Conclusion: Look for many volatile sessions this coming week and maybe a long position in SKF?
Ross Aldridge Las Vegas Nevada
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SKF over the next 72 hours.