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I look at value and contrarian ideas as well as disruptive technologies worldwide, both on the long and short side. I also like to discuss the influence of monetary policy on stock markets. I usually do not engage in short-term trading and myopic analysis (quarter by quarter, without looking at... More
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  • AAPL Analysts And Terrible Track Records - Don't Listen To Peter Misek  3 comments
    Jun 18, 2013 8:19 AM | about stocks: AAPL

    Peter Misek is an analyst. Apparently analysts are paid (a lot of) money to give price targets and insights about the companies and business sectors they cover.

    Let's review his predictions about AAPL. I don't know where to start. Maybe with one his latest gems:

    "In August 2012, Misek claimed that Apple's HDTV is in full production and that Apple is going to sell them with a subsidy through Verizon and AT&T starting in early 2013."

    So where are the millions of Apple HDTV (iTV) sets? I haven't seen them.

    I wonder how many AAPL investors bought into the "iTV" as the next big thing from Apple and added Apple stock near the highs in summer 2012 "thanks" to Misek - they lost almost 40-50% off the highs.

    Of course, everyone can be wrong regarding predictions, especially with a secretive company like AAPL. But Misek stated again and again in 2012 that the Apple TV was in full production - stating it as a FACT, not a rumor or prediction.

    Misek has a terrible track record. A web site took the time to collect his AAPL predictions:


    Now Peter Misek claims to know everything about an Apple iWatch and that it will be merely a "hobby" for Apple. So, did he see the product prototype - or was he fooled again by his sources? Why is he prediciting an uptake of only 5% of the iOS user base when the ASP is just $175?

    Flashback: Misek gave AAPL a highly optimistic price target of $800 in June 2012, just 12 months ago:


    Later in 2012, he raised his PT to $900. Needless to say, AAPL never reached these levels.

    In 2013 he suddenly (after looking at the AAPL chart?) thinks AAPL is a hold - after claiming iPhone 5 orders were reduced:

    "Jefferies maintains a Hold rating and $420 price target on Apple, citing greater competition, decreased likelihood of EPS upside, and margin pressure."

    "In a note this morning he cuts his price target to $420, down from $500, and suggests it's all over for Apple.

    As recently as August (2012) Misek had a $900 price target on Apple.

    What's changed? He thinks the iPhone is over."


    This iPhone order reduction was proven wrong by the latest quarterly numbers from Apple after Misek made these comments.

    The Mac website cited above had this telling summary about Misek:

    More often than not, though, Misek's track record is just comically wrong, especially when his famous pink elephant - the rumored Apple HDTV - is concerned. If you ever see an Apple rumor with Misek's name attached, take it with a huge lump of salt. We're not saying he's always wrong, but this is not the kind of informed source with a flawless track record you build your newsday around.

    Ergo: Don't listen to Misek. He mostly follows the stock price on the chart, retro-actively adjusting his price targets - and his sources are mostly wrong.

    Same goes for most of the other AAPL analysts, lots of bad Apples. Here's an alternative after so much bad news: A clever analyst covering AAPL can be found at Asymco.com , another one with good sources and a better track record is Ming-Chi Kuo (link with more iWatch details) !

    Stocks: AAPL
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Comments (3)
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  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6829) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » One more thing: Misek has another questionable honor: One of his predictions was so wrong that it go shot down by the Apple CEO himself:


    Misek Prediction: In December 2012 – Peter Misek cited “supply chain source” to claim that iPhone 5 part orders have been cut drastically.


    Reality: Tim Cook personally shut down Misek’s rumor and said you can’t get a handle on Apple by look at one or two points in Apple’s huge supply chain.
    18 Jun 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6829) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Also in December 2012, he lowered the PT from $900 to $800:




    While none of this bearish predictions came true in 2013, he still halved the PT to $400 earlier this year. Does that make sense? No.


    July 2013 has gone by with no iPhone 5S. He also predicted:


    "Fewer details were provided on a potential Apple television set, but Misek said he believes the mythical device will launch in September or October of 2013."


    I will believe it when I see it.


    Again, I simply believe Misek is following the AAPL chart and then makes up PTs as the stock goes.
    2 Aug 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • bigskings
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
    Peter is the worst on Earth.
    3 Sep 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
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