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Tales From The Future
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I look at value and contrarian ideas as well as emerging technologies worldwide, both on the long and short side. I also like to discuss the influence of monetary policy on stock markets. I usually do not engage in short-term trading and myopic analysis (quarter by quarter, without looking at... More
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  • Caution: Investor Sentiment Now Dangerously Exuberant - Addicted FED At Crossroads 3 comments
    Sep 18, 2013 1:55 PM

    First part of the title is taken from:

    The 'What, Me Worry?' stock market

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-what-me-worry-market-2013-09-17

    Couldn't have said it better myself.

    The problems in the Eurozone are not over (just wait until the German elections are over), Japan is in deep financial distress longer-term (debt/GDP), China is in a private debt bubble and the US will soon bicker again about the debt ceiling...just wait until the US rates really start moving and we have a really bad cocktail mixed with fiat money.

    Yet many stock markets are at all-time highs - this can go on for a few more weeks or months, but I would be very cautious right now entering new positions.

    Let's see what the FED does tonight - *drumroll* - no taper it is:

    • *FED REFRAINS FROM QE TAPER, KEEPS MONTHLY BUYING AT $85 BLN
    • *FED: RISE IN MORTGAGE RATES, FISCAL POLICY RESTRAIN GROWTH
    • *FED: `TIGHTENING OF FINANCIAL CONDITIONS' COULD SLOW GROWTH
    • *MOST FED OFFICIALS SEE FIRST INTEREST-RATE RISE IN 2015

    ...and what it will do in the coming months into 2015. This and the upcoming FED successor (Yellen it is now?) will set the tone for the stock and bond markets. For now the FED plan still looks like this:

    Octaper

    Novaper

    Decaper

    Janaper

    Febraper

    Maraper

    Apraper

    Mayper

    Junaper

    Julaper

    Augustaper

    Septaper

    (nice tweet from twitter.com/EuroStability/status/3803981... )

    See the instant reaction in gold-related assets, the S&P500 and the VXX. Janet Louise will have to clean up this fiat money mess one day.

    PS: As readers know, I 'm out of most positions held from 2009 until 2013 since this summer. Details in earlier Instablog entries, I will only hold a few short-term long positions from now on. This is getting crazy.

    Themes: Macroeconomics, FED
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  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4107) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A good article on the same subject published today on SA:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Sep 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4107) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Two smart guys with a good track record think the (US) stock market is now fully valued:

     

    "Carl Icahn agrees with Warren Buffett that the market is fully valued"

     

    http://bit.ly/1evuClI
    20 Sep 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4107) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One of the few people who called the FED "bluffing" right (and he was already right about the US housing crisis) is Peter Schiff:

     

    http://bit.ly/19H8UUV
    25 Sep 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
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