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Tales From The Future (tftf). I picked my nickname because many advisors and investors claim they can predict the future of the (stock) markets and somehow pick the winners. I don't. I usually do not engage in short-term trading and myopic analysis (quarter by quarter, without looking at the big... More
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  • #BubbleMania: Social Media And Other Internet Unicorns  2 comments
    Nov 6, 2013 1:32 PM | about stocks: TWTR

    On the eve of the TWTR IPO, it's time to revisit my recent "another Internet/Tech (2.0 so to speak) bubble is soon here" thesis once again.

    Please note the chart below is already outdated for TWTR as the book is closing and TWTR valuation is now closer to $15-20 billion USD:

    Twitter is expected to price its initial public offering at $25 to $28, The Wall Street Journal said Wednesday. The newspaper cited information from fund managers briefed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, two of the banks underwriting the IPO. The reported price range would be higher than the upwardly revised IPO price range of $23 to $25 set by the San Francisco-based microblogging site this week. Twitter had initially set a range of $17 to $20.

    How does TWTR's valuation stack up compared to other tech stocks? Here we go...

    (click to enlarge)

    ( Source: roymurdock.com/essays/2013/11/snapchat-i.../ )

    PS: That friendly ghost marks Snapchat's current valuation. Compared to Snapchat, TWTR at least has meaningful revenue at the moment.

    Stocks: TWTR
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  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (7619) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Another interesting look at the likely tech bubble brewing in late 2013:


    "Tech Bubble 2.0 (Less Profitable and More Manic)"


    14 Nov 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (7619) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Meanwhile, Snapchat's valuation has nw risen to $10 billion...




    Is this a bubble or what?


    As everyone not using Snapchat can see...




    Whatsapp or others could introduce/clone these "unique" features in a few weeks. There is nothing special about a "disappear" toggle/option in other messaging networks.


    I do not see meangingful monetization on the horizon for any of these messaging networks. The big ones like Skype, WeChat, LINE and Whatsapp have already eaten up the pie of users globally, the pieces get smaller.


    Snapchat like its competitors is simply a magnet to attract eyeballs into an ecosystem with a single login, cross-selling (virtual) goods or simply a defensive move for giants like FB to keep (younger) eyeballs.
    27 Aug 2014, 10:23 AM Reply Like
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