I tweeted several times about Microsoft's Hololens project yesterday.
Here are a few links about this AR (Augmented Reality) hardware platform:
www.wired.com/2015/01/microsoft-hands-on/
www.engadget.com/2015/01/21/microsofts-h.../
www.polygon.com/2015/1/21/7869631/micros...
gigaom.com/2015/01/21/microsoft-hololens.../
Microsoft's official page can be found here:
www.microsoft.com/microsoft-hololens/en-us
Does that tweetfest mean that I suddenly turned bullish on Microsoft and its share outlook?
Not at all, mainly because the company also announced - or rather had to announce because of growing pressure from Apple and Android - free (with more than one asterisk attached) Windows 10 licenses at the same time.
SA contributor P. Santos wrote a good article on the impact of "free" Windows:
- Microsoft will offer free upgrades from Windows 7, 8 and 8.1 to Windows 10 for free.
- This is surprising in that it includes Windows 7.
- So the overwhelming majority of the Windows installed base will be included.
- This could impact both the PC market and Microsoft.
seekingalpha.com/article/2838636-free-wi...
Bottom line for MSFT shares: Exciting technical announcements (that get major press coverage) should not overwhelm investors, otherwise they miss the bleeding cash cow in the backyard (Windows licenses along with MS Office and server licenses were the liveblood for MSFT earnings for decades).
Therefore, I would stay away from MSFT shares, especially as they already trade well above $45 at the moment, the good news is priced in while the bad news may be overlooked.
Let's turn to the technical side of things and the long-term impact:
I think the Hololens could have a major long-term impact on computing and platforms this coming decade (emphasis on long-term, therefore, no immediate impact on MSFT):
I'm excited about this AR project's potential from Microsoft, much more so than for earlier attempts in the AR and VR space *.
Why? As long-time Apple watcher Gruber aptly put it:
HoloLens is like the anti-Glass. Google proposed Glass as something you'd wear everywhere, making you look weird and creepy. HoloLens is clearly something you'll only wear in private, while working or playing. And, by virtue of being so much bigger and obtrusive, HoloLens is far more powerful and capable.
As Gruber also cautioned we have to be wary because Microsoft has not announced any details yet (pricing, battery life and exact launch date).
Remember that Microsoft has overpromised many times on hardware projects. For example the first Kinect (aka Project Natal back then) announcements in 2009...
Skeptical of HoloLens? It's time to rewatch how Microsoft sold us on the Kinect
Not even the second Kinect version (initially bundled with all XBox One game consoles) lived up to its promise and has been abandoned by most game developers (MSFT also unbundled the accessory from the XBox One recently, this will of course further lower adoption rates).
Nevertheless and with all necessary caution in place: Between new Wearables and AR (and maybe VR, I'm still not a big fan of VR) we have an exciting decade of computer interaction in front of us.
By 2025, AR and wearables may be as common as mice and touch interfaces today.
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* See my earlier Instablog on the FB VR project "Oculus Rift" for details why I think AR has more potential than VR in the near term: