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Deron Wagner is the founder and portfolio manager of Morpheus Trading Group. His daily focus is managing and trading the Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund, which he founded in April of 2004. He also teaches his swing trading strategy with The Wagner Daily newsletter, which provides exact entry, exit,... More
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Advanced Technical Analysis of ETFs
  • A Bit Of Churning Enters The Market ($UCO, $DTO, $SPX)- February 1, 2012 0 comments
    Feb 1, 2012 9:03 AM | about stocks: UCO, DTO

    Stocks ended Tuesday's high volume session virtually flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P MidCap 400 slid 0.16% and 0.1% respectively. The S&P 500 finished marginally lower, while the Nasdaq ended the session fractionally higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed flat. Sectors exhibiting the most relative strength were gold, biotech, real estate, transportation and emerging markets. Underperformers on the day included, natural gas, oil, banking, solar energy, insurance and healthcare.

    Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume surged by 6.3% on the Nasdaq and 20.7% on the NYSE. For the first time in recent memory, advancing volume and declining volume finished at equilibrium on both exchanges. Tuesday was a strange trading day. Initially it appeared as if bears were going to wrestle control of the market but a spurt of afternoon buying propelled the major indices back to the middle of their intraday ranges. The virtually flat price action near the highs of the two week trading range, combined with the jump in volume is indicative of "churning". Often, when markets reach extremes, spikes in volume will occur but have little effect on price action. The churning type action may suggest that institutions were selling into strength. Typically, when stocks are consolidating, they do it on light volume. When big spikes in volume cannot illicit a proportional movement in price, this can serve as a leading indicator that the market may reverse. Churning is a subtle clue that a market may be due for a correction.

    Over the past twenty trading sessions the ProShares Ultra Dow Jones AIG Crude ETF (NYSEARCA:UCO) has been quietly exhibiting a bearish divergence with the S&P 500. Should the broad market turn lower for a few days, UCO could lose support due to its relative weakness. In addition, UCO formed a bearish reversal candle yesterday on a dramatic spike in volume. A drop below yesterday's low of $39.79 could present a shorting opportunity. We like this short setup and are adding it to the watchlist. Trade details are provided in the watchlist section of the newsletter. The fact that commodities are not as highly correlated to the market is what allows us to consider this counter-trend setup. For those of you trading qualified accounts or those who cannot borrow shares to short UCO, buying the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (NYSEARCA:DTO) is the inverse alternative to shorting UCO.

    The commentary above is a short version of our daily trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific stock & ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. A Live Trading Room is included with your subscription, and Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. The above is our general ETF analysis for today. For more details, educational articles, and trader resources please visit http://morpheustrading.wordpress.com/ .

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