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Eld
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Part-time trader.
  • How To Make Money On $NOK - Week 8 [Starting 18.2] 14 comments
    Feb 17, 2013 5:26 AM | about stocks: NOK

    As discussed earlier, here is the article willing to gather forecasts for $NOK's share during Week 8.

    You can share your forecast day by day or the general trend, and please support your opinion with facts.

    Hopefully it'll help you take good investment decisions.

    Enjoy!

    My take: $NOK will raid towards $3.6 by 22.2 before MWC, because of current bad signals (carriers are cutting expenses, economic slow down in Europe/US) and no support for a raid up (no NOK tablet at MWC)

    Stocks: NOK
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Comments (14)
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  • Colaolli
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
     
    I dont think the lack of tablet would make a big impact
    17 Feb 2013, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • BTR2RSK
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    Eld: You say: "please support your opinion with facts." Then go on to say: "My take: $NOK will raid towards $3.6 by 22.2 before MWC, because of current bad signals (carriers are cutting expenses, economic slow down in Europe/US) and no support for a raid up (no NOK tablet at MWC)"

     

    All the facts you bring up have been ongoing for years now and are not valid reasons for Nokia to not continue rising closer to a more reasonable share price. The outlook for Nokia today is better than it was 2 years ago when it announced its partnership with Microsoft.

     

    That`s an opinion and I think you should correct your intro from facts to "reasonable opinions" because in the domain of financial markets, facts are ever changing and mean different things in the hands of people with different perspectives.
    17 Feb 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi BTR2RSK,

     

    This blog is for short-term forecasts, not long-term views on NOK. We are looking here at how the stock will evolve next week.

     

    "carriers cutting expenses" as well as "economic slow down" "no tablet at MWC" are new events (end of last week), they are supportive facts of my forecast (drop to $3.6).

     

    If you have facts supporting a rise in the next days, feel free to share by adding as well which target price you have, this is what this blog is made for.
    17 Feb 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • BTR2RSK
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    So you consider economic slowdown and carriers cutting expenses as having an impact during the coming week? I think these are ongoing factors that impact regional sales during substantial periods, not one week. You can`t look at someone in the eye and seriously expect them to believe that the factors you named will impact share price from Monday to Friday of week 8. I already told you why I think the price should rise, however I don`t have the pretention to think that the market as a whole will sit and take notice of my statement and say: yeah, he's right, let's buy and increase the price until in the area of $9-15 at least, because that's around where it was in 2010.
    17 Feb 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • BTR2RSK
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    Oh yeah and "no tablet at MWC" is not necessarily a factor to bring the price down. A tablet was never announced in the first place, it was always storymaking on the part of bloggers and journalists, and many others believe that Nokia should not come out with a tablet at this early stage in their recovery anyhow, so bullish feeling there.
    17 Feb 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The news itself always have an impact on the stock, because it changes expectations. So at the moment when the news is released, investors will take position (long/short), that will drive the stock.

     

    As for the tablet, I would consider it as a catalyzer for the stock. So no tablet = no catalyzer.
    18 Feb 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    I'm long NOK, and often get irritated by ELD's bearish comments, but....to be fair, he does not have to prefer evidence for the above, for, as of the end of the week, NOK did in fact make the run towards $3.60, stopped at 3.71 think? So, whatever method took him there, he was in the end correct. In the medium/long term, I'm hoping for NOK to fly towards $10. I think there is a lot of talk about samsung, iphone, but generations of people growing up with NOK as THE phone is not factored in, and from what I can see, the lumias are the hip phone to have these days. Also, as seen by foxtons estate agent buying 900 lumias for their staff, they are a) hip and b) THE mobile platform for the windows enterprise, plus navigation etc etc. They are at fire sale prices at the moment, so...predicated on surviving ( ! ) they have huge potential for growth. Sorry if I've just stated the bleeding obvious. I'm fairly new to S.A.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • cheznazi
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    My chart suggests it closed over its support line of $3.94. The only resistance now is at $4.06 based on the 50 day MA on a 1 month chart. If it breaks the resistance then I would be bullish near time and see the stock go to $4.20-ish before another pullback.

     

    However if it breaks the support line then short term the stock could flatline or pullback to $3.80-ish again.

     

    DISCLAIMER: Super new at reading charts so don't bite me if I am wrong. This is what I see on the chart. But, ask my gut and it is telling me I will be $400 richer next week when the stock hits $4.20. :)
    17 Feb 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • C. Guivi
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    I think $NOK will drop after MWC because of "sell on the news" and because the elephant in the room is Q1 results. MWC speculation is all that NOK is holding up right now.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:25 AM Reply Like
  • C. Guivi
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    so I agree with eld's short term target of $3.60 for slightly different reasons.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:26 AM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 21.2 low: $3.68

     

    Seems my forecast of $3.6 by 22.2 was not completely unrealistic.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • C. Guivi
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    $3,75, 3,50, 3,25 - what's the bottom...?

     

    Anyone have a guess for the price one day after Q1 results...?
    22 Feb 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • BTR2RSK
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    After Q1, share should be passed $5. Short squeeze will be finally on as 2 profitable quarters in a row will demonstrate that Nokia is back baby.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Follow-up:

     

    Open 19.2: $3.96
    low 21.2: $3.68

     

    Forecast was correct
    14 Sep 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
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