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Weekly Outlook, 12-11

|Includes:Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (CTRP), GMXRQ, NCI, SPY

      As what I read becomes more complacent, I get more cautious. My predictions for this past week were correct. The market consolidated and then broke out to multi-year highs. Also, my predicted range for a top has now been entered when the market broke 1245 intra-day on Friday. This week's gasp up was on alarmingly low volume. If this is a top, we will see a new fundamental story breaking in the next week or two. Generally the market seems to fall on some directed fear. My caution continues.

     My timing in NCI proved to be pretty good, and I'm bullish. The same holds true for CTRP. I requested a 10-K from GMX Resources, and I'll make my judgement on the quality of the company after I sift through that. It looks like most of their leverage comes from long-term debt, which may or may not be manageable. Granted that this is partly what I want to happen, but I'm seeing at least a few more weeks of bullishness. We'll just have to wait and see, but in the meantime I'm liking where I am.
Stocks: CTRP, GMXRQ, NCI, SPY