Please consider this the weekly outlook for this week, as I'm leaving for vacation and won't be writing for the next couple weekends.
In the model portfolio, I intend to hold onto to TRLG and NRG, as they both continue to perform. I will publish a review of NRG's 2nd quarter results soon.
Volatility and downwards volume both hit their highest levels since the European debt crisis last spring. Volatility hit its highest close since July 1st, 2010. For SPY, today had the highest downwards volume since May 20th, 2010. The headlines today all sported coverage of a collapse into fear as the Dow slid over 500 points.
This is a great time to be in cash. The market has support at 1200, but I'm not counting on it. In the last few minutes before the close today, the market bounced off this support. Not only is it a round number, it also represented important points in April and November 2010. I'd expect some daily consolidation before we head lower to a weekly low which would act as monthly consolidation.
Looking again at the weekly chart, I expect a pullback to 1150. 1200 marks the 50% retracement level, and 1150 would be 61.8%. Not only this, 1150 would act as round number support and gap support, Finally the 1150 level is supported by the head-and-shoulders pattern the market just completed. I plan to continue to look for signs of a bottom before entering long in CLF, SHOO, and others.