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Manuel A. Salceda's  Instablog

Manuel A. Salceda
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Investor, Property Developer and Hotel Owner. Ardent Follower of Buffett and Munger's principles. Interested in Small Companies at or below intrinsic value with little or no debt. A business easy to understand and not related to a rapidly changing enviroment (as technology). If it's not in vogue... More
My company:
Grupo Bruesal SA de CV
My blog:
How to Become a Millionaire
My book:
How to Become a Millionaire
  • Shorting Netflix should pay - Someday! 0 comments
    Jan 13, 2011 12:25 PM
    Market timing has always been a risky proposition and one I have avoided all of the time, until now. Whitney Tilson's article about why he is shorting Netflix is just one of many exercises made by good investors about why the stock price of the company is not justified.

    I'm also shorting Netflix. I was shorting it since last year (bad results) and I'm still shorting it right now (still bad results). Time will tell who was right and what should be the correct price for the stock, but what's always true is that market timing is very risky and even though your analysis may be correct the market may not agree with you for a very long period, so the short may prove wrong - at least for now!

    I will hold the puts I bought until they approach their exercise date, but I don't like where this is going and I already regret doing what I have always preached not to do, which is timing the market.

    So, what do you think?
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