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Coming week on Wall Street 13 comments
However I believe that the market is at a "tipping point" that should be settled by next Friday
On one hand you have financial regulatory reform and health care reform "pending" which depending how they "play out" can be either good or bad catalysts
You also have the fed and options expiration next week
Also we have had low volume
One camp believes that because no one is short and the other believe that this"rally" is not for real
However the "intangible" is the hedge funds which are responsible for more than 25% of the volume
Citigroup in the past week was responsible for 20% of the volume of the NYSE the past week
Scary huh?
My guess is that if market does NOT correct next week we will have managers chasing performance and buying many names like F C SVU BRK AAPL and all the names that DONE GREAT in Q1
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This post has 13 comments:
To wit: earnings reports for widely-held public companies couldn't surprise downward to a severity that shocks investors. Pessimism present within Joe/Jane Average Shareholder [my apologies to any alpha seeker who has that as his/her user name: no cross-reference intended] would have the only true major surprise being proof of a long-running bull rally with legs to be part of FY 2010.
I do not believe this is a realistic expectation -- the bull rally.
As a direct function of that weakness, my musings point to an inevitable adjustment, however not for any of the reasons to which you point.
This coming Friday's expiry is March 19. First quarter for commercial businesses close the last Friday of this month. Next month's witching is April 16.
The day after US tax day filings must be completed.
I believe despite the relative low volume we have been experiencing, that deadline, in addition to the ceaseless restatements of 1099s people have been forced to endure, with any overall readjustments to any investment plans from original financial planning approaches subscribed to, for argument's sake, five years ago, concomitant loss in wealth or wages, decreases in net worth based on home values, etc., also must be wrestled with this coming week so that when the Taxman is ready for you, you are ready for the Taxman.
As such, while the tipping point is nigh, there is still another obstacle we must be prepared for before we try to "stick the landing" after the tipping point; we must be certain we set ourselves properly before the tip begins, and wait for the appropriate moment to make our leap for the glory.
Or our chance will be totally forfeited -- or our futile attempt will be totally forgettable. Or worse.
I dont think april tax deadline is a negative
If anything many of my clients who are doing seps are going to put them in late
Appreciate the banter though
However, with maximum deposit limits, and minimum job security, exactly what percentage of tax paying Americans are going to file late; use a pro; have a business structure already formed to allow the legal donation of monies into a SEP; use it appropriately with other retirement vehicles, 401ks, Roth plans, etc.
This is a forum for things financial, and, consequently, the people writing here and reading here are more proactive than most in regard to their investments.
It is not unlike going to a jazz club and talking to another patron grooving to some jazz about that art form. Interests in common, with the willingness to listen ....
Talk about jazz to a six year old that watches America's Most Talented. Maybe a discussion that will not be as mutually beneficial. More likely than not, I would guess.
No disrespect intended, but I would say, not unlike a nutritionist who believes a malady may be cured through diet alone; or a surgeon who believes the answer is on the operating table; or a chiropractor who believes the same problem may be solved by a realignment --
You would not be in the discipline you practice if YOU did not believe in it.
I believe your certitude that you "dont think april tax deadline is a negative" is true for you, not for everyone.
Your belief is NOT a universal truth, just as my opinion is not either.
I referred to the deadline as a contributing factor in my comment -- excuse me, BANTER.
Not everyone wishes to hop onto an operating table just because one doctor says it will help.
People who are NOT in an exigent situation often seek other doctor's opinions for other banter, oh, ideas, excuse me.
After weighing the preponderance of opinions from qualified individuals the patient then should make an informed decision.
In my opinion.
I am not a doctor.
I do not even play one on television.
I am however Time2Work, and I DO approve this message.
What is IRS 8b Payout?
You are yanking my chain. "What is IRS *8b" payout??
2 months ago
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by Wayne Z Member since:
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It is from a misleading ad on Newsmax.com.
Line 8b on the 1040 is for tax exempt interest. Anyone can receive tax exempt interest. All they have to do is own municipal bonds. Personally, I get a couple hundred dollars a year because I own a muni bond fund.
The example in the ad shows something like $53,000+ in tax exempt interest. Is this possible? Sure. You would have to own about $2 million in muni bonds first. If you have an extra $2 million laying around, buy some muni bonds and get tax exempt interest.
This ad, like most things on Newsmax, is very misleading.
Tune in and watch and ENJOY
I still have those writeups haha
Pretending muni bonds are a bid deal and desirable at today's interest rates is a joke.
The $1 fee you're charging is much more than your offer is worth. What total garbage that whole presentation was.
my articles and want to know when I publish something new.
Who cares one bit about hearing you tout MO a thousand times? Where are your articles? Who follows your worthless offerings?
A Contrarian Play with BIG Upside
Posted by: stockdocx99: Date: Oct 10, 2007 9:52pm
YRC Worldwide [NDQ:YRCW] $26.74 - as of Oct. 10, 2007
YRCW is one of the biggest trucking companies in America and the world. YRCW is the result of the merger of Yellow Freight and Roadway Corporation in December of 2005. Earnings have dipped recently due to a general slowdown in economic activty. Ryder, another trucking firm, lowered their EPS forcast this week. Why then should we be looking to buy YRCW now? Price and value.
YRCW shares are within pennies of their 4-year absolute low price while revenues are near record levels. Book Value has never been higher than today's approximately $40/share. The current earnings estimates for 2007 and 2008 are $2.97 and $3.50 respectively making the P/E on next year's estimate a very low 7.7X. Those estimates already reflect the punk economic conditions expected over the next 12 - 18 months. In the good times of 2004 and 2005 YRCW earned $5.28 and $5.01 so they have proven normalized earnings power of at least $5 /share once conditions improve again.
YRCW spent heavily over the past year to buy into the mainland Chinese market through the acquisitions of local firms that have 30,000 customers and 3300 tractor trailers. Growth potential in China appears very substantial.
Currently YRCW controls about 60% of the LTL [less-than-truckload] market in the USA and will post revenues of almost $10 billion next year. Long-term debt is very managable at just 29% of capital. These shares now trade at under 0.7X tangible book value and at a forward P/E lower than all but one year in the past 16. That year was 2000 and YRCW shares then proceeded to climb from their 2000 low of $13.80 to a 2005 high of $64.50.
Buying when others are disinterested or fearful means having the courage of your own convictions and displaying patience to wait for the inevitable recovery. Management owned 1.1%, FMR [Fidelity Funds] owned 9.7%, and Barclays Global Investors owned 8.6% as of the March 2007 proxy statement.
Value Line feels the 'proper' long-term P/E for this company is 11X and that the 3 - 5 EPS will reach $6.40 /share as profit margins and sales return to more normal levels. Eleven times the 2008 estimate of $3.50 leads to a 15 month target price of $38.50 or 44% above today's closing quote. That appears to be a very conservative projection as YRCW shares have actually traded as high as $47.10 this year and above $50 in each year 2004 - 2006. They hit a high of $37 in 2003 - a year in which EPS were only $2.19.
Considering the big discount to book value, the Chinese growth vehicle and the extremely low current valuation YRCW shares offer big upside. The main risk here is a much worse than expected slowdown in the US.
I'm an aggressive buyer right here near 4-year lows and will continue to buy if these shares get a bit cheaper in the short term. $40 - 50 seems a very reasonable 24 month goal price for a potential 50% + gain.
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