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Sonya Colberg joined TheStreetSweeper in early 2012 as a senior investigative reporter after racking up an impressive pile of journalism awards for her past work at two major daily newspapers. For example, Colberg recently won top honors – recognized by the Society of Professional Journalists... More
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  • Look Again: CSKI Appears to Be Deteriorating Fast 4 comments
    Mar 19, 2010 10:44 AM | about stocks: CSKI

    Following a swift decline in sales, China Sky One Medical (Nasdaq: CSKI) is no longer the picture of health that it once seemed to be.

    If CSKI’s fourth-quarter results looked weak based on traditional year-over-year comparisons, those numbers look downright painful when examined on a sequential basis.

    During the last three months of 2009 – a period when Chinese officials reportedly identified eight CSKI treatments as “counterfeit” drugs and began prohibiting their sale – the company saw revenue decline, often precipitously, in every one of its product categories.

    Sales of patches, CSKI’s largest revenue generator, fell 16% sequentially. Sales of ointments, another major source of revenue, dropped by more than half. Sales of sprays, which initially looked solid on a year-over-year basis, actually plunged by more than 40% between the third and fourth quarters of last year.

    Sales of diagnostic testing kits, while a smaller revenue driver for the company, plummeted by almost 70% during that same timeframe. Even sales of “other” products – a key source of revenue derived from recent acquisitions – suffered double-digit declines during the final quarter of the year.

    Just four months ago, CSKI confidently reaffirmed its full-year financial guidance when reporting “record” third-quarter results for the company. Although CSKI somehow managed to reach its modest revenue target, the company fell well short of Wall Street’s higher top-line estimates while missing its own bottom-line forecast as well.

    Notably, an investigative report by longtime bear Manuel Asensio indicates, Chinese officials cracked down on the sale of multiple CSKI products about halfway through the fourth quarter. Specifically, Asenio revealed, the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China published a list of “counterfeit” drugs – including eight CSKI treatments – on Nov. 5 that ordered pharmacies to “immediately stop the sale” of those products.

    Just days after Asensio published his Feb. 19 report, CSKI responded by saying that it had revised the product labels for seven of those drugs and secured government permission to begin selling them again. At the time, CSKI insisted that the interruption would have no “material impact” on the company’s overall financial results.

    The announcement rescued CSKI’s falling stock, which had plummeted from $17.90 to $14.64 on Asensio’s warning, and helped push the shares back above $17 by the time the company released its dismal fourth-quarter report. CSKI then suffered a similar decline, with its stock spiraling from $17.15 to $14.49, when the company reported its rare earnings miss this week.

    One day after that big hit, CSKI came through with good news yet again. This time, CSKI suddenly announced that the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology had recognized Antroquinonol – an anti-cancer treatment the company is developing – as a “breakthrough drug” that qualifies for speedy regulatory review and government research funds.

    Shares of CSKI, under huge selling pressure the previous day, quickly bounced 4.1% to $15.09 on the news.

    CSKI has already secured regulatory permission to begin early-stage trials of Antroquinonol, a compound extracted from a rare tree fungus, here in the U.S. Yet despite the drug’s new “breakthrough” status, Factiva’s extensive news database indicates, the mainstream U.S. media – normally eager to cover possible cancer cures – had previously never even mentioned the drug.

    * To contact Melissa Davis, the author of this story, please send an email to editor@thestreetsweeper.org.



    Disclosure: No Positions
    Stocks: CSKI
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Comments (4)
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  • MagicDiligence
    , contributor
    Comments (240) | Send Message
     
    For what it's worth, on the conference call they explained the sequential drop as an overstocked inventory issue from the blowout Q3. Also, historically they have experienced Q3->Q4 dropoffs, although of less magnitude. In 2008, Q3 (29.7) was higher than Q4 (26.0), and in 2007 as well so there is some seasonality there. Guidance was for 20% top and 11-13% op profit growth in 2010.

     

    Everyone has an opinion on Asensio, but I don't think the "counterfeit" products had much to do with results here. They were under 5% of sales.
    26 Mar 2010, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Hester
    , contributor
    Comments (549) | Send Message
     
    The title of your article is very misleading and unfactual. You claim that a company is deteriorating quickly because they miss wall street expectations.

     

    According to your profile you are a fraud fighter. Yet the only thing CSKI did wrong that you cited was counterfeit drugs. Not only were the drugs under 5% of sales, but they were just a labeling issue and not a product quality issue.

     

    I think it might be a little too much to say that a company is deteriorating quickly because they had a weaker than expected quarter. Typical wall street, worry about each quarter. Only worry about the next 3-6 months and ignore the bigger picture.
    26 Mar 2010, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • phdgirlygirl
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Melissa will someday be exposed as the fraud she is !
    28 Jun 2010, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • phdgirlygirl
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Melissa's warm association with a well know Penny Stock Manipulator who was convicted of FRAUD (convicted felon Hunter Adams) is proof that she is not a well balanced writer. We suspect that this may be a factor in her being released from employment at thestreet.com
    28 Jun 2010, 11:56 AM Reply Like
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