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Kevin brings a wealth of derivatives experience to RCM Asset Management. Following graduation (Marquette University – Evans Scholar 1999) Kevin started working for LETCO Trading on the CBOE floor. Between 2000 and 2007 Kevin traded a variety of Equity and Index options products as a market maker... More
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  • Either Copper Is Too Cheap.... 0 comments
    Feb 22, 2013 5:51 AM

    .....or the S&Ps are too expensive. (My opinion).

    Divergences continue to develop (a la 2007 and 2011).

    I'm a firm believer in mean reversion, but I also have to keep in mind the FOMC is pumping $85 billion into the economy (errrrrrr......Big Banks) every month.

    According to Fed data in Feb of 2013, the FOMC (via the NY Fed) will buy about 75% of new 30 year Treasuries.

    Do yourself a favor and look at this: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html .

    On just about every business day this month, the Fed will pump between $1 billion and $5.75 billion into the system.

    Of late, that wealth creating stimulus has been flowing into the Energies (Gasoline) and S&Ps/RUT (out of Metals/Bonds?)

    I mention late August of 2010 (Jackson Hole/QEII announcement) often and you'll notice Copper's outperformance from that point until the European risk flares of 2011. Since then, Copper has lagged, but generally tracked alongside the S&Ps.

    Today (2/19), however Copper is down 2.4% and the S&Ps are up another .55% (reference China liquidity REDUCING efforts).

    Strange stuff is going on. Meanwhile CNBC keeps the "Countdown to All Time Highs on DJIA and S&Ps" in the bottom right hand corner.

    I believe you could SELL PUTS IN COPPER v BUYING PUTS IN THE S&Ps.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: The sender relied on data sources believed to be accurate and that RCM did not take on measures to verify the accuracy of this data. It is believed to be accurate at this time and could result in large losses if read and acted upon at a later time.

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